Simon Harris must have shuddered as he watched Rishi Sunak, the UK prime minister, make such a hames of announcing a general election. All the more so as we are on the verge ourselves, as it were. The political logic of this government’s mandate going all the way looks to be more lacking by the day. An early budget seems to be in the offing and much thought is being given to how quickly the Finance Bill, which makes law what is in the budget, could be rushed through.
In March, when he was appointed leader of Fine Gael, Harris ruled out an early general election. “It is my view and my intention that this government should run its full term,” he said.
But circumstances can change minds. That’s especially when you have been pleasantly surprised by the rosy results in last weekend’s Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll for Fine Gael. It showed a Harris bounce taking Fine Gael to 23 per cent. Also for voters, the continuation of the coalition was the most popular choice. Elsewhere, Fianna Fail held steady while the Sinn Fein decline continued.
Do you strike while the iron is gone beyond lukewarm? How long will the Harris lift last? Much now is contingent on the results of the local and European elections but that poll has given comfort. Feelings are mixed among senior people in government as to what date would be best for an early election if one were called. Some plump for late November or early December, but there is also a preference for earlier in November. A lot of TDs would much rather have it over and done before Christmas.
Government housekeeping does come into it. After the excitement of the annual budget you have the detailed slog of the Finance Bill. Without that, there would be a situation where a budget is held but no legislation is made to enforce its contents. This would not be good politics given that it could take months to form a new coalition.
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So what is anticipated, as one informed source explained this week, is that a “bikini bill” covering only the essentials — ba-dum-tish — would be rushed through.
In June we will have the summer economic statement outlining the fiscal parameters. But the date of the budget, even an early one, does not have to be announced then. We do have a recent example of a budget being brought forward from the usual date to early October. In 2022 the cost of living crisis led to it taking place on September 27.
Usually the Finance Bill would be signed by the president before Christmas. However, if a general election were in the offing that process could be speeded up as the condensed version made its way through the Dail and Seanad. It would need five weeks but could be done faster at a squeeze. Once the Dail is dissolved for a general election the Seanad always sits a while longer, so this would allow the legislative process to be completed.
One thing a budget definitely needs is a minister for finance to deliver it — preferably one who has had time to prepare it and be familiar with all aspects. There is a possible wrinkle here with a question mark over who will be Ireland’s next European Union commissioner.
Filling the commissioner post is within Fianna Fail’s gift. Michael McGrath, the finance minister, is strongly in the frame and would probably leap at the chance. Certainly he would be considered most suitable and senior enough. But who would replace him in the Department of Finance? No one obvious in Fianna Fail jumps out.
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Even more pertinent, when might the new EU commissioners be expected to be at their desks? According to one Brussels source there is much speculation around all of this. Everyone is watching to see the make-up of the new European parliament, the various groupings and how much of a swing to the far right is seen. If Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, is re-elected there is no certainty that her appointment would be confirmed in July. While she is expected to win, there is no certainty there either. Her confirmation process could be as late as September.
But let’s just say it happens in July. When he was put forward for a second term in 2019, Phil Hogan was nominated by the Irish government on July 9. Two months later he was nominated by von der Leyen to the trade portfolio.
So as well as an opportunity the current circumstances present a headache for Fianna Fail in terms of budget and election timing. They add complications for McGrath’s commissioner candidacy. Could a new finance minister really be put into the role and deliver a September budget at such short notice?
Micheál Martin has said the new commissioner has to be “someone of a senior status in public life”. We don’t even know if he has ruled himself out of the role: the Fianna Fail leader is not known for sharing confidences. Does the tanaiste imagine himself once again in the taoiseach’s office? Equally though, at 63, and after a successful stint in foreign affairs, might he decide he wants to contribute more in Europe? That would deal with any questions on budget timings.
Finally, on the commissionership, what happens if, like last time, von der Leyen asks each country to put forward two candidates, a man and a woman? So many questions!
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Those who know the tanaiste speculate that last weekend’s Irish Times poll would have given him pause for thought in terms of the possibility of getting back into a coalition government. That poll, as well as what is being picked up on doorsteps, has given Fianna Fail confidence that while the elections might be bruising, they will not be a disaster.
“Lots of people on the doorstep are non-committal but there is no great spark in terms of aggravation towards us,” said a minister who has been canvassing in recent weeks. “If you stay at the door long enough, immigration does get mentioned. It’s so dominant in the media that everyone is in fear they will be affected.” Housing is also coming up, as well as health.
A twist on all of this, which also points to the logic of an early election, is the prospect of the government having to hold by-elections within six months of the European elections should a TD be elected as an MEP.
Predicting anything politically is a tough task right now. In essence the complexities in terms of an early general election are many but none are insurmountable. That scenario looks increasingly like a safer bet. In the wake of the recent referendums, a sense of fear and alarm gripped the main political parties.
That has begun to lift. It could be game on very soon.
