Rishi Sunak’s rain-spattered announcement of a July general election was drearily befitting of a government more than 20 points behind in the polls. The spoils that await the victor include a near-record NHS waiting list, an education system still reeling from Covid and an economy producing anaemic growth. But Sunak was right to call the election, even if he ends up falling short. Britain has been drifting for eight years, since the Brexit vote that unleashed demons within the Tory party and hobbled the economy. We have become too accustomed to a political class that opts for bickering over problem-solving. This contest will force both main parties to set out a more positive vision for the country’s future and try and grab a jaded public’s attention.
The early omens have not been good. Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have traded personal attacks, while Conservatives and Labour have accused each other of having multibillion-pound holes in their tax and spending plans. Some of this is the inevitable cut and thrust of an election. Much of it reflects a vacuum of ideas. Indeed, after 14 years in power, the Tories look exhausted. Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng destroyed the party’s reputation for economic competency. Its current policy platform, from the smoking ban to the non-dom rule changes stolen from Labour, is confused and incoherent. Many of these laws will not make it onto the statute book now anyway due to the election.
Meanwhile, a record number of MPs intend to stand down, including big beasts such as Michael Gove. Gove is a controversial figure whose education reforms brought in a new breed of academies and free schools and whose more recent interventions on housing have sought to take on vested interests. Yet at his best, particularly during his spell as justice secretary, he embodied the kind of energetic focus any government needs. He will be missed.
Starmer has ruthlessly dragged the Labour Party back to the centre ground — curbing the power of its membership, taking control of its national executive committee and ejecting his hard-left predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn. The Labour leader presents himself as cautious and managerial. This may be enough to see the party through to a majority as the Conservative vote collapses. But we have seen little of his party’s ability to develop flagship policies. Its vow to spend £28 billion a year on renewable energy projects, championed by Ed Miliband, fell apart in slow motion. Deputy leader Angela Rayner’s reforms to workers’ rights are now undergoing a more modest neutering and could end up taking years to implement — to the relief of many small businesses. Where Labour’s true instincts can be glimpsed, they tend towards the statist.
This weekend, Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, writes for The Sunday Times about the need for NHS reform, arguing that a “cultural rot” has put the health service’s interests above that of patients. He is right about wanting to reform the “national religion”, and his policy of “radical candour” for healthcare staff is welcome.
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However, his party has yet to produce a credible plan for speeding up treatment of the millions on waiting lists. Fundamental improvement must include addressing the deep problems in social care. Yet Sir Andrew Dilnot, the economist whose proposals to cap costs were first adopted by the government more than a decade ago and then repeatedly delayed, has said that both parties need to “grow up” and face the situation rather than ignore it.
Hard thinking also needs to go into education. In 2022, 141,000 children spent more time out of class than in it — a legacy of the pandemic. A worrying proportion of parents believe it is not essential for children to attend school every day. Our universities, still addicted to the declining cash provided by foreign students, need urgent reform.
Economic growth has averaged 1.4 per cent a year since 2010, weaker than in the 1997-2010 period or even the 1970s. The City, the jewel in Britain’s crown, has been allowed to lose its lustre. What business wants now is predictability, lower taxes and the ability to get things done.
Labour would not find it easy to simplify the planning system but its promise to do so is a laudable example of the kind of unglamorous work required to remove barriers to growth. While Britain has turned inwards, the world around it has changed. Russia and China pose more potent threats. The US has become an even more powerful innovator. Against this background is not good enough for the election to be fought on scaremongering or culture-war issues. Sunak and Starmer need to tell us how Britain will compete and succeed in this new era.
