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Who will win the US election in 2024? Latest polls and predictions

Donald Trump has a lead over Joe Biden in most surveys — for now at least. Turnout on November 5 will prove key

Alistair Dawber
The Times

The US election will pit two presidents against each other — but the familiarity of the likely candidates is doing little to help predict a winner.

American voters are not excited about a rematch between the incumbent, Joe Biden, and the former president Donald Trump, meaning that turnout, which was 62 per cent in 2020, could well be a decisive factor.

Trump, 77, has a loyal and enthusiastic base of support but has alienated much of the electorate, while Biden, 81, may struggle to enthuse sufficient voters to ensure a second consecutive victory, with his advanced age and frequent gaffes causing growing concern.

It is also possible that independent and third-party candidates could play a role in determining the result. They include the