My usual preflight routine goes something like this: check passport and boarding pass, ensure I’ve downloaded a sufficient number of Paw Patrol episodes for my preschooler … then look at the forecast from Turbli.com.
The website, set up in 2020, analyses the weather forecasts used by flight crew to predict the level of turbulence a flight is likely to experience, classified as light, moderate or severe. I have been a nervous flyer since I was on a frightening transatlantic flight two years ago — which is rather awkward given my job as a travel writer. Hence the obsessive checking of Turbli.com, which usually reassures me when I see “Just some light turbulence, smooth flight ahead” — the best words in travel short of “You’ve been upgraded”.
No website could have predicted what happened on Flight SQ321 from London to Singapore this week, when the Boeing 777 was hit by “sudden, extreme” turbulence over the Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar, leading to the death of a passenger. It is an extremely traumatic and tragic incident that will doubtless deter many nervous flyers from getting on board an airliner again and even send chills down the spine of the most unflappable traveller.
What we must remember is that extreme turbulence is rare, and generally it is uncomfortable for passengers rather than dangerous. Before this week the two most recent deaths on commercial flights attributed to turbulence came in 2009 and 1997, according to Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at Reading University who has studied the phenomenon for 20 years.
But here’s the bad news: the number of incidents of turbulence is expected to “double or treble” by the middle of this century thanks to the effects of climate change, Williams says. There has already been a 55 per cent increase in episodes of severe turbulence since 1979, according to satellite data on atmospheric winds.
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Global warming drives wind shear (a change in direction or speed of the wind) at high altitude, which is what causes planes to shake violently. This is impossible to avoid, Williams says, but certain areas are more prone to turbulence: over the North Atlantic, because of the jet stream; in the Tropics, where storms are prevalent; and above mountain ranges. Transatlantic flights are typically the most affected, and I’m always more nervous when on board one of them, especially at night. Turbli lists the most turbulent areas as the airspace over Argentina, China and Kazakhstan and from northern Italy to Switzerland.
Last year I spoke to Andras Galffy, founder of Turbulence Solutions (TS), an Austrian firm that has developed tech to counter turbulence and steady the rocking of aircraft. After the incident this week TS posted on Twitter/X that “the technology is ready to be installed in large aircraft as well”.
On a recent flight I sat apart from my family during a particularly bumpy patch of air over the Atlantic, not wanting to spook my four-year-old with my inability to hold it together — then ordered a mini bottle of prosecco and downed it in one; an unhealthy form of self-medication, but at the moment the best I have.
This latest incident won’t put me off flying, but it will make me buckle up throughout the flight.
Does worsening turbulence put you off flying? Let us know in the comments below.
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