A little more than two weeks ago, an old broom swept into the SNP that the party hoped would revive its sagging popularity.
Hopes are being pinned on John Swinney, who was central to the project that brought the Nationalists into government in 2007, served as Alex Salmond’s finance secretary and then Nicola Sturgeon’s deputy first minister, as a safer pair of hands than his predecessor, Humza Yousaf.
The problem Swinney faces is that polling has not only failed to bounce after his appointment, it has in fact worsened for the SNP.
On the bright side for the Nationalists is the fact that the Scottish public appear to be willing to give Swinney a chance.
A recent survey for YouGov found him to be the most popular politician north of the border and more people believed he would do a good job as first minister than thought he would fail in the role.
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The downside is that the same survey found that there is a severe lack of public trust in the SNP’s ability to make the right decisions on any of the big issues that affect people’s lives. It also gave Labour a ten-point lead over Swinney’s party.
Labour is breathing down the neck of the SNP — particularly in the central belt of Scotland around Edinburgh and Glasgow — and is pushing the notion of a “change” election that is every bit as focused on the Nationalists as it is on the Conservatives.
Were the YouGov poll result to be repeated at the general election, the SNP would crash to 11 MPs, compared with 48 in 2019. Meanwhile, Labour would surge to 35 compared with the two seats it holds, one of which was gained in a by-election only last year.
Even if that research is an outlier, the trend does not make for pretty reading for the SNP, with Labour having closed a 41-point gap over the past three years.
Swinney is already running a campaign based on “standing up for Scotland”, the slogan that did so much damage to Labour in 2015 as the Nationalists won 56 of the 59 available seats at that election.
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Sweeping in the same plans that worked before may not be the clean-up job that the SNP requires this time around.
