The Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan has fuelled speculation that the global supply of heroin could increase as a result.
Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of opium - the key ingredient in heroin and other opiate drugs. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the percentage of Afghan land devoted to farming opium poppies grew 37 percent in 2019-2020 alone.
With a rise in production, there are fears that European countries could see increased heroin use as the supply rises.
But National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) special investigator Jari Leskinen told Yle the risks were overstated.
"The fear of a heroin tsunami as a result of the Taliban regime is based on ignorance. The huge and steady flow from Afghanistan has been going on for a long time and will continue," he said.
Leskinen does not believe that demand for the drug will rise in Finland in the future, arguing that the flow of heroin from Afghanistan has remained high and constant, under both the Taliban and the US-backed government. A change of government unlikely to affect this.
"The UN's annual reports make it quite clear that, year after year and decade after decade, Afghanistan is the main producer of raw opium and heroin, whoever is in power," Leskinen said.
Police: Subutex will continue to hold its own
In Finland, heroin was replaced by buprenorphine - usually known by the brand name Subutex - in the early 2000s, a period when heroin had caused many overdoses and deaths.
Although it is available on prescription in Finland, smuggling Subutex is also a very lucrative business, Helsinki police say.
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"Subutex is brought to Finland from France, as well as the streets of some other places. One tablet costs a few euros. In Finland, they may ask for dozens of euros, or even in northern Finland or in prisons a hundred euros. Subutex has a high profit margin in Finland," said Markku Heinikari, inspector at Helsinki Police Department's narcotics unit.
According to the experts, Subutex has all but replaced heroin use in Finland.
"Most of the Subutex trafficked by foreign criminal groups comes to Finland. Nowhere else is it used to the same extent," Heinikari said.
"It may well be that the supply to Europe is increasing, but since there is no demand for heroin in Finland, you wouldn't start pumping it into markets that are not attractive. But if there was demand, there would certainly be heroin here," he said.
By contrast, there is a huge amount of marijuana coming into Finland, because demand is very high, Heinikari said.
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However, the drug police are monitoring whether the change of power in Afghanistan will spark an increase in heroin use in Finland.
"We have to base our view on the facts. If heroin starts to appear in Finland, of course there will be a reaction," Heinikari said.
'Supply can fuel demand'
Kaarlo Simojoki, CEO and Chief Medical Officer of substance abuse and mental healthcare provider A-Klinikka, believes there may well be demand for heroin in Finland in the future.
"The drug market is always affected by what is on offer. For its part, it creates demand," he said.
Simojoki takes methamphetamine as an example. When its price fell and there was ample supply, its popularity rose.
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"If we have demand for opioids in Finland, this could also be reflected in an increase in the use of heroin, especially if the price of heroin started to fall," he said.
One reason for Simokoki's concern is the increase in so-called "problem opioid use" in Finland - the usage of illegal or non-prescription opioids like heroin.
"Problem opioid use doubled between 2012 and 2017. This includes all opioids, such as heroin, buprenorphine, codeine, tramadol and pentalyn," he said.
This sharp increase in problem opioid users creates fertile ground for heroin, Simojoki argues. Of particular concern is the fact problem opioid use has increased especially among 25-34 year olds, creating a new generation of potential heroin users.
THL: We wouldn't count heroin out
The Finnish Institute of Health and Welfare (THL) said that while Subutex usage had limited heroin's appeal in Finland, the country should be prepared for an uptick in heroin users.
"If the supply of heroin were to change substantially, with a sharp drop in price, an increase in use in Finland cannot be ruled out under any circumstances," said Teemu Gunnar, head of THL's forensic chemistry department.
However, Gunnar agreed that the unique position of Subutex in Finland could help prevent an increase. In many Nordic countries, southern Europe and Russia, heroin use has traditionally been much higher than in Finland.
"In Finland, the dominance of buprenorphine as an opioid in substance abuse is exceptional in global terms. It could be argued that users in Finland are used to using buprenorphine and that this would prevent a switch to heroin," he said.
