Ukraine had a clear motive to sabotage the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022, according to Arkady Moshes, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Germany has issued an arrest warrant for a 44-year-old Ukrainian man suspected of sabotaging the gas lines, according to several news outlets, including Reuters.
In September 2022, authorities discovered that the pipelines had been damaged and leaking gas in Baltic Sea territories belonging to Sweden Denmark. Some suggested that Russia was behind the damage, but Moscow denied the allegations.
The Ukrainian suspect is a professional diver. Authorities believe that he and two other Ukrainian diving instructors collaborated to place explosives by the pipelines at the bottom of the sea, but arrest warrants have not been issued for the other two, according to Reuters.
Media reports also noted that an investigation into the matter had not shown that the Ukrainian state was directly involved.
Moshes said that Ukraine would have a clear motive, however, as Nord Stream supplied Germany with natural gas from Russia.
"[Keeping the pipelines open] could have led to Germany cooperating more closely with Russia, which would have meant putting more pressure on Ukraine to surrender," Moshes explained.
He added that the evidence against the suspect must be strong, given that an arrest warrant had been issued.
"This can't be a PR trick. They really believe the Ukrainians did it," Moshes said.
When the Nord Stream pipeline was damaged, Russia's war in Ukraine had already been going on for more than half a year. Meanwhile, Europe — reliant on Russian gas — was threatened by a looming energy crisis which Russia had already taken advantage of.
Moshes noted that Ukraine and Poland had not been comfortable with the Nord Stream project from the beginning, adding that the situation turned out to be a long-term benefit to Germany.
"The pipeline's destruction forced Germany to seek out alternative energy sources and build new LNG (liquid natural gas) infrastructure, and they did it quickly," Moshes said.
The damaged pipelines may even have improved relations between Germany and Ukraine, according to the researcher.
He added that German leaders are also likely aware of how important it was for the country to quickly break its dependence on Russian energy, even though it was financially painful.
"The ones who damaged the pipelines eliminated the possibility of Germany prioritising Russian gas ahead of Ukraine's freedom. So it helped Germany make the right decision," Moshes said.
In a separate incident, the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was also damaged under mysterious cirucumstances in 2023.
On Monday, media outlets reported that China had acknowledged the Chinese-owned cargo ship Newnew Polar Bear was responsible for damaging that pipeline.
On Wednesday, Estonia's newly elected Prime Minister, Kristen Michal, said that it was too early to comment in detail about the development.
