Researchers report a statistical model to estimate the likely number of casualties in military conflicts, given the wide range of reported casualty estimates and the biases of information sources. The reported number of casualties in a military conflict can range widely, partly because of unreliable information and partly because of combatants’ incentives to obscure true losses. Benjamin J. Radford and colleagues compiled a dataset of 4,609 reports of military and civilian losses from both sides of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The authors constructed a statistical model to estimate the likely number of casualties, accounting for biases of information sources, categories of reported losses, such as equipment, and varying time scales of reports, including daily and cumulative reports. The results revealed that Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses are roughly comparable, but Russia has lost personnel at a rate of around 5.53 to 1, relative to Ukrainian losses. The model also suggested that Russia has a higher fatality-to-casualty ratio than Ukraine. According to the authors, although Ukrainian sources do not show systematic bias in reporting Ukrainian losses and Russian sources underestimate Russian losses, both sides appear to overestimate losses by their opponent.
Researchers report a statistical model to estimate the likely number of casualties in military conflicts, given the wide range of reported casualty estimates and the biases of information sources. The reported number of casualties in a military conflict can range widely, partly because of unreliable information and partly because of combatants’ incentives to obscure true losses. Benjamin J. Radford and colleagues compiled a dataset of 4,609 reports of military and civilian losses from both sides of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The authors constructed a statistical model to estimate the likely number of casualties, accounting for biases of information sources, categories of reported losses, such as equipment, and varying time scales of reports, including daily and cumulative reports. The results revealed that Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses are roughly comparable, but Russia has lost personnel at a rate of around 5.53 to 1, relative to Ukrainian losses. The model also suggested that Russia has a higher fatality-to-casualty ratio than Ukraine. According to the authors, although Ukrainian sources do not show systematic bias in reporting Ukrainian losses and Russian sources underestimate Russian losses, both sides appear to overestimate losses by their opponent.
Dette var en lang artikkel om eventuelle russiske drepte. Hvor lang blir artikkelen om ukrainske drepte?
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