Monthly Outlook

The colder spell of weather will continue for a little longer this week. Later on it should generally become drier and calmer, with high pressure influence around the UK still the more likely scenario, although uncertainty remains.

Temperatures are expected to hover around average for this time of year, with ups and downs in between. However, they're likely to remain subdued or even slightly lower due to a predominantly north-westerly to northerly flow.

From the beginning of May there is a chance of warmer temperatures and generally calmer conditions.

Rain and showers associated with a weakening low moving into the North Sea will ease southwards during Wednesday as high pressure builds to the west of the UK. After daytime highs of 8-12°C on Wednesday, which is also below the seasonal average, it is likely to become quite chilly or even frosty in places on Wednesday night.

With a persistent and strengthening north-westerly flow, a new area of low pressure and associated fronts will cross the UK in a south-easterly direction on Thursday, affecting especially northern and eastern areas. Drier conditions will prevail further west and south-west. Windier conditions can therefore be expected at times in the north and east of the country.

From Friday high pressure will move across the south of the UK bringing drier and calmer conditions. The far north and north-east could be affected by the northward shifting frontal zone, particularly on Sunday, and possibly including East Anglia too.

Temperatures will slowly recover during the second half of the week and get close to average temperatures by the weekend. Night-time lows will rise during this period but there is still a risk of a quite chilly Friday night.

The next week remains uncertain but there are some signs that high pressure to the west or north of the UK is holding, which could lead to calmer and drier weather, particularly in the north and west. Near average temperatures are expected for much of the UK.

The other scenario sees high pressure retreating further west or north-west of the UK, restoring an overall more north-westerly or even northerly flow with changeable and generally cooler weather for a while. These conditions are generally more likely for eastern parts of the UK, as trough/low-pressure passages are more likely just further east over the North Sea and the European continent.

Confidence in the forecasts for late April and early May continues to decline as increasingly uncertain weather patterns develop. The global models are more or less assuming a build-up or continuation of high pressure near the UK and a trough over southern and central Europe (high-over-low pattern). At the same time the low pressure over central Europe could later extend to parts of southern England.

Temperatures are likely to be around average at first, with calmer and drier conditions expected mainly in the north and north-west, while the south could become wetter and windier. Temperatures could rise slightly above average in the second week of May.

There is also the possibility that conditions will calm down overall from the beginning of May and temperatures will continue to rise, with the area of high pressure over Scandinavia continuing to establish itself and bringing a warm and dry easterly flow.

We will see if the drier pattern continues to stabilise. Another possible trend could make for rather wet, windy and cooler conditions, mainly due to uncertainty about the late state of the stratospheric polar vortex and some other factors, which are still conflicting