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Commentary

Commentary: Shinzo Abe set Japan on the path it is on today

By raising Japan’s profile on the world stage, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the country’s most consequential leader since the Cold War. His bold and pragmatic policies were timely responses to a challenging strategic environment, says RSIS’ Associate Professor Bhubhindar Singh.

Commentary: Shinzo Abe set Japan on the path it is on today

A woman prays after offering a bouquet of flowers at the memorial area set up for former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, at the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's headquarters in Tokyo, on Jul 14, 2022. (Photo: AP Photo/Hiro Komae)

SINGAPORE: Shinzo Abe’s assassination is a tragic event and one of the most high-profile political attacks in modern Japanese history, leading to a public outpouring of grief and shock.

No matter the side taken in debating his role in constitutional revision efforts following the Upper House elections or the remote possibility of his return as prime minister for the third time, Japan watchers find themselves now busy discussing Abe’s enduring legacy.

As Japan’s longest serving prime minister, Abe became the most consequential leader after the Cold War, when Japan’s foreign policy approach was predominantly shaped by its economic interests while limiting involvement in international affairs.

His bold and pragmatic approach not only raised Japan’s profile on the world stage, but shaped national policy discourse and will continue to do so for decades to come. 

‘JAPAN IS BACK’

In one of his early speeches following his return to power in 2012, Abe confidently announced “Japan is back”, marking the country’s shift to a more proactive foreign policy.

Abe’s return occurred at an opportune time when Japan faced a more dangerous strategic environment defined by China’s increasing assertiveness in the region and beyond. His view was that for Japan to be a major player in international affairs, it would need elevated deterrence capabilities supported by a multi-dimensional foreign foreign policy comprising ofdiplomatic, economic and security means.

Not only did Abe invest in upgrading the US-Japan alliance through strengthened interoperability and training, but he worked towards building partnerships with democratic and non-democratic states.

Then President Barack Obama and then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe depart Sukiyabashi Jiro sushi restaurant in Tokyo, Wednesday, April 23, 2014. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster, File)

He visited 176 countries including all ten in Southeast Asia in one year, as well as in the Indo-Pacific, North America, Europe and beyond. The whirlwind tours allowed Japan to gain goodwill and widespread support for its national interests and values, as well as for maintaining a rules-based order against a rising China.

These efforts culminated in Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy, introduced in 2016. Probably Abe’s boldest contribution, it led to the ubiquity of the term “Indo-Pacific” in bilateral and multilateral discussions.

The seeds of FOIP were sown in Abe’s speech at the Indian parliament in 2007. He raised the notion of a “broader Asia”, linking India and Japan to “an immense network spanning the entirety of the Pacific Ocean”, including the US and Australia.

This not only laid the groundwork for the Quad group, but also the architecture of the Indo-Pacific. Their overall goal is to promote stability and prosperity based on strengthening the rules-based order and promoting deeper economic engagement.

ABE’S CONTROVERSIAL PROJECT TO REFORM THE CONSTITUTION

To reinforce the “Japan is back” stance, Abe implemented a range of institutional and political reforms at home.

He established the National Security Council (NSC) in 2013 which coordinates all agencies and matters of national security and, for the first time, published a National Security Strategy document, which outlined Japan’s long-term view of its security challenges and responses.

Abe’s most ambitious – and controversial – project was to reform Japan’s postwar regime, especially the pacifist constitution.

He believed Japan had been shackled by Article 9. It has imposed unnecessary limits on the military and its role in international affairs . These limits are visibly ill-suited to address contemporary challenges, namely China’s growing assertiveness, North Korea’s advancing capabilities in ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes, and more recently Russia’s attempts to disrupt the status quo.

But Abe struggled to push for the revision of Article 9. Some segments of Japanese society were concerned that revising the constitution would spur conservative leaders to deploy military to overseas conflicts more frequently. Due to this opposition, Abe could not rally sufficient support to hold a referendum – a necessary step in the amendment process – to revise Article 9.

However, Abe was successful in reinterpreting Article 9, which lifted a ban on collective self-defence missions. This formed the legal basis for the passage of security bills in 2015 that authorised the Self-Defense Force (SDF) to participate in missions alongside the US and other friendly states, even when Japan is not attacked. 

ABE’S FOCUS ON ECONOMICS AND CHINA

But at the heart of it, Abe was a pragmatist, demonstrated in his focus on economics and China. When he returned to power in 2012, Abe was clear Japan needed to jumpstart its economy to respond to China’s economic, political, and strategic rise.

His government implemented the so-called three arrows – monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and structural reform – that collectively became known as “Abenomics”.

While Abenomics failed to achieve the required reforms to boost national productivity competitiveness, it succeeded on the fronts of monetary and fiscal policy and revitalised the economy.

Abe’s other win was the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), overcoming domestic opposition – namely the agriculture lobby – to sign the high-standard free-trade agreement key to building a free and fair economic system between Asia-Pacific countries.

Though the Trump administration eventually withdrew the United States which lead the TPP to fall through, Abe’s leadership was central in rallying the remaining TPP members to sign a Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Abe also recognised the importance of maintaining a stable working relationship with China, Japan’s largest trading partner. This is despite points of contention between the two neighbours, like territorial disputes in the East China Sea or Chinese criticisms of Abe being a historical revisionist.

Not only did Abe regularly hold meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but he also reversed Japan’s opposition towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2017. During the 2018 Abe-Xi bilateral summit, both governments concluded 52 memorandums of cooperation in areas such as infrastructure, logistics and healthcare.

TAKING ON ABE’S MANTLE

In the wake of Abe’s assassination, there are questions how Japanese society’s perception of the SDF will change since the perpetrator was formerly from the military, albeit for a short period.

The SDF’s reputation has incrementally improved since the post-Cold War period due to its relief efforts during natural disasters, protecting Japan from mounting security challenges and contributions to international peacekeeping.

Abe worked hard in raising the profile and legitimacy of the SDF. He reversed the decline in defence spending when he returned to power in 2012; upgraded Japan’s Defense Agency to a ministry; and proposed for the addition of a third paragraph to Article 9 to legitimately recognise the SDF. It remains to be seen if public opinion of the SDF turns negative.

Finally, Abe’s departure raises questions on who has the stature to take on his mantle in spearheading debate on foreign policy and domestic political reforms.

Perhaps Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is the most likely candidate after steering the Liberal Democratic Party to victory in two elections. The perceptions of him being a moderate on defence issues could turn out to be a better approach to overcome opposition from Japanese society.

Whatever the case, Abe’s boldness and pragmatism are good lessons for any leader in Japan to ensure Japan is safe against a worsening strategic environment where three of its neighbours, China, North Korea and Russia are behaving in coercive ways.

Bhubhindar Singh is Associate Professor and Head of Graduate Studies at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) and Faculty Fellow at the NTU-University Scholars Programme, Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.

Source: CNA/el

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