See why the conflict in eastern Ukraine is heating up
A buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine’s border raises fears that the simmering separatist conflict may flare into outright war between the two countries.
The word “Ukraine” literally translates into “on the edge” in English—and once again the country at the crossroads between East and West is feeling the pressure.
The current crisis in Ukraine first flared in early 2014, following the Ukrainian “Revolution of Dignity” that overthrew a pro-Russian president. Russia subsequently sent in troops to annex Crimea, claiming it had to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers living in the southern Ukrainian territory. The annexation gave Russia a strategic Black Sea port, earned Russian president Vladimir Putin a surge in domestic support, and resulted in broad international condemnation.
Soon after the annexation, Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine’s coal-rich Donbas region seized much of the Donetsk and Luhansk administrative regions—where the majority of residents are Russian speakers—and declared the establishment of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.
Fighting between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatists in Donbas has continued sporadically since 2014, in spite of numerous cease-fire agreements. A so-called Line of Contact—a 240-mile-long barrier of trenches and fortifications—has remained largely unchanged since the beginning of the conflict. The UN estimates that more than 13,000 people have died in the fighting.
Over the past month Russia has significantly increased its military presence along its border with Ukraine, with Kremlin officials once again warning that it will vigorously defend its people— many of whom have been issued Russian passports—in the separatist enclaves. The troop buildup in Crimea and near the eastern border, which is believed to be the largest since 2014, is raising concerns that the simmering conflict could erupt into all-out war between the two countries. The Russian defense ministry claims it’s conducting more than 4,000 military drills in the area this month. Meanwhile, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy is pushing for Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) with the hope that the organization’s mutual-defense pact with 12 other nations, including the U.S., will deter Russian aggression and force an end to the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Russia has long opposed Ukrainian aspirations to join NATO, as well as other western-oriented political and economic organizations, including the European Union.
One possible outcome of the separatist clash in Donbas is the crystallization, after seven years of skirmishes, of another post-Soviet “frozen conflict” where the fighting has faded but political status is unresolved— such as in the Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where Russia also supports separatist movements.
Concerns about a frozen conflict in Donbas had already been raised back in 2014, says Serhii Plokhii, professor of Ukrainian history and director of the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University.
“But now, seven years later, with the conflict developing from open warfare, to the continuous shelling of each other’s positions, and back to the possibility of deployment of the regular Russian troops, a “frozen” conflict seems like a good scenario,” he says.
Other experts are viewing the Russian troop buildup near the border as just posturing, with Russia wanting to maintain just enough political status and support in eastern Ukraine to keep their neighbor from formalizing too many ties with Europe and the West. But that posturing could escalate, and fast.
“Probably it is a demonstration, it is a measure to prevent something,” says Ivan Safranchuk, a senior research fellow at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. “There were worries that the Biden administration may provide too much support to Ukraine and [Ukrainian president] Zelenskiy may go too far.” The Kremlin has expressed concern that the Ukrainian military might try to re-take the Russian separatist-controlled regions in the east, or pull out of peace talks based in the Belarussian capital, Minsk
“But is it impossible that a demonstration to prevent something may slip into a demonstration to acquire something in more practical terms?” mulls Safranchuk. “I wouldn’t say that is 100 percent impossible.”
Related Topics
You May Also Like
Go Further
Animals
- This fungus turns cicadas into zombies who procreate—then dieThis fungus turns cicadas into zombies who procreate—then die
- How can we protect grizzlies from their biggest threat—trains?How can we protect grizzlies from their biggest threat—trains?
- This ‘saber-toothed’ salmon wasn’t quite what we thoughtThis ‘saber-toothed’ salmon wasn’t quite what we thought
- Why this rhino-zebra friendship makes perfect senseWhy this rhino-zebra friendship makes perfect sense
- When did bioluminescence evolve? It’s older than we thought.When did bioluminescence evolve? It’s older than we thought.
Environment
- Are the Great Lakes the key to solving America’s emissions conundrum?Are the Great Lakes the key to solving America’s emissions conundrum?
- The world’s historic sites face climate change. Can Petra lead the way?The world’s historic sites face climate change. Can Petra lead the way?
- This pristine piece of the Amazon shows nature’s resilienceThis pristine piece of the Amazon shows nature’s resilience
- Listen to 30 years of climate change transformed into haunting musicListen to 30 years of climate change transformed into haunting music
History & Culture
- U.K. treasure hunters are finding ancient artifacts—who gets to keep them?U.K. treasure hunters are finding ancient artifacts—who gets to keep them?
- Meet the original members of the tortured poets departmentMeet the original members of the tortured poets department
- Séances at the White House? Why these first ladies turned to the occultSéances at the White House? Why these first ladies turned to the occult
- Gambling is everywhere now. When is that a problem?Gambling is everywhere now. When is that a problem?
Science
- Should you be concerned about bird flu in your milk?Should you be concerned about bird flu in your milk?
- Here's how astronomers found one of the rarest phenomenons in spaceHere's how astronomers found one of the rarest phenomenons in space
- Not an extrovert or introvert? There’s a word for that.Not an extrovert or introvert? There’s a word for that.
- NASA has a plan to clean up space junk—but is going green enough?NASA has a plan to clean up space junk—but is going green enough?
Travel
- Germany's iconic castle has been renovated. Here's how to see itGermany's iconic castle has been renovated. Here's how to see it
- This tomb diver was among the first to swim beneath a pyramidThis tomb diver was among the first to swim beneath a pyramid
- Food writer Dina Macki on Omani cuisine and Zanzibari flavoursFood writer Dina Macki on Omani cuisine and Zanzibari flavours
- How to see Mexico's Baja California beyond the beachesHow to see Mexico's Baja California beyond the beaches