Dynamic Evaluation and Risk Projection of Heat Exposure Based on Disaster Events for Single-Season Rice along the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Region
2.2. Data Description
2.3. Data Description
2.3.1. Samples of Rice Heat Process
2.3.2. Daily Heat-Affected (H-d) and Non-Heat-Affected (NH-d) Samples
2.4. Construction of Heat Evaluation Level
2.4.1. Fisher Discriminant Analysis
2.4.2. Kappa Coefficient
2.5. Projection Analysis of Rice Heat Risk
3. Results
3.1. Quantification of Daily-Scale Heat Intensity
3.2. Evaluation of Rice Heat Level
3.2.1. Characteristics of Historical Heat Process
3.2.2. Catastrophe Grade Indicators of Heat Disaster
3.2.3. Indicator Verification by Independent Heat Samples
3.3. Risk Projection for Single-Season Rice Heat
4. Discussion
4.1. Utilization of Rice Heat Evaluation Level
4.2. Explanation of Variable Heat Risk Projection
4.3. Uncertainties and Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Model | Institutions and States |
---|---|
CanESM5 | Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada |
FGOALS-g3 | Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China |
MRI-ESM2-0 | Meteorological Research Institute, Japan |
NorESM2-LM | NorESM Climate Modeling Consortium, Norway |
Growth Stage | Sample Classification | Mild | Moderate | Severe | Total Sample Size |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tillering | Heat | 127/31 | 27/7 | 35/8 | 235 |
Non-heat | 415 | ||||
Booting | Heat | 74/18 | 55/13 | 49/12 | 221 |
Non-heat | 335 | ||||
Flowering | Heat | 74/18 | 57/14 | 109/27 | 299 |
Non-heat | 498 | ||||
Filling | Heat | 60/18 | 55/12 | 65/16 | 226 |
Non-heat | 369 |
Growth Stage | Category | Critical Line | Accuracy | NH-d | H-d |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tillering | Dry | 92.7% | 36/85.7% | 104/95.4% | |
Medium | 82.2% | 760/69.7% | 1491/93.8% | ||
Wet | 80.6% | 711/75.4% | 359/93.4% | ||
Booting | Dry | 98.8% | 74/100% | 159/98.3% | |
Medium | 75.1% | 796/69.9% | 1569/78.0% | ||
Wet | 88.7% | 390/83.8% | 202/100% | ||
Flowering | Dry | 92.3% | 54/100% | 438/91.4% | |
Medium | 83.0% | 901/81.8% | 1893/83.6% | ||
Wet | 82.0% | 1036/77.6% | 345/99.0% | ||
Filling | Dry | 79.1% | 297/79.4% | 139/78.4% | |
Medium/wet | 87.0% | 1118/76.0% | 1250/100% |
Growth Stage | Test Threshold | Mild/Moderate | Moderate/Severe | Classification Performance | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Optimal Range | Optimal Threshold | Optimal Range | Optimal Threshold | Kappa | OA | ||
Tillering | [3,15] | - | 6 | - | 9 | 0.753 | 0.876 |
Booting | [3,14] | - | 5 | - | 8 | 0.532 | 0.691 |
Flowering | [3,13] | - | 5 | - | 8 | 0.647 | 0.779 |
Filling | [3,14] | - | 6 | - | 9 | 0.564 | 0.711 |
Growth Stage | Duration | Test Threshold | Mild/Moderate | Moderate/Severe | Classification Performance | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Optimal Range | Optimal Threshold | Optimal Range | Optimal Threshold | Kappa | OA | |||
Tillering | 3~6 d | [0.6,10.3] | [6.7,8.3] | 7.5 | - | - | 0.586 | 0.968 |
7~9 d | [5.1,14.1] | - | 6.2 | [8.1,14.0] | 10.05 | 0.627 | 0.789 | |
≥10 d | [5.7,23.6] | [5.8,6.0] | 5.9 | [9.1,10.0] | 9.55 | 0.849 | 0.943 | |
Booting | 3~5 d | [0.8,15.7] | [8.0,8.9] | 8.45 | - | 12.7 | 0.846 | 0.924 |
6~8 d | [3.0,15.5] | - | 5.9 | [10.8,11.1] | 10.95 | 0.872 | 0.922 | |
≥9 d | [4.5,23.6] | [5.3,6.1] | 5.7 | [9.8,9.9] | 9.8 | 0.662 | 0.877 | |
Flowering | 3~5 d | [0.6,9.3] | - | 7.4 | - | - | 0.648 | 0.910 |
6~8 d | [2.6,15.2] | [5.9,6.4] | 6.15 | [10.6,12.5] | 11.55 | 0.844 | 0.913 | |
≥9 d | [4.0,28.3] | [4.5,5.5] | 5.0 | [10.7,11.3] | 11.0 | 0.903 | 0.969 | |
Filling | 3~6 d | [0.9,9.3] | [5.4,5.5] | 5.4 | - | - | 0.406 | 0.731 |
7~9 d | [3.1,15.0] | - | 7.0 | [11.8,12.0] | 11.9 | 0.807 | 0.885 | |
≥10 d | [5.6,25.4] | [5.7,6.3] | 6.0 | - | 10.0 | 0.832 | 0.937 |
Growth Stage | Duration | Mild | Moderate | Severe |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tillering | 3~6 d | [0.6,7.5] | >7.5 | - |
7~9 d | [0.6,6.2] | (6.2,10.05] | >10.05 | |
≥10 d | [0.6,5.9] | (5.9,9.55] | >9.55 | |
Booting | 3~5 d | [0.8,8.45] | (8.45,12.7] | >12.7 |
6~8 d | [0.8,5.9] | (5.9,10.95] | >10.95 | |
≥9 d | [0.8,5.7] | (5.7,9.8] | >9.8 | |
Flowering | 3~5 d | [0.6,7.4] | >7.4 | - |
6~8 d | [0.6,6.15] | (6.15,11.55] | >11.55 | |
≥9 d | [0.6,5.0] | (5.0,11.0] | >11.0 | |
Filling | 3~6 d | [0.9,5.4] | >5.4 | - |
7~9 d | [0.9,7.0] | (7.0,11.9] | >11.9 | |
≥10 d | [0.9,6.0] | (6.0,10.0] | >10.0 |
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Jiang, M.; Huo, Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, F.; Li, M.; Mi, Q.; Kong, R. Dynamic Evaluation and Risk Projection of Heat Exposure Based on Disaster Events for Single-Season Rice along the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China. Agronomy 2024, 14, 1737. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14081737
Jiang M, Huo Z, Zhang L, Zhang F, Li M, Mi Q, Kong R. Dynamic Evaluation and Risk Projection of Heat Exposure Based on Disaster Events for Single-Season Rice along the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China. Agronomy. 2024; 14(8):1737. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14081737
Chicago/Turabian StyleJiang, Mengyuan, Zhiguo Huo, Lei Zhang, Fengyin Zhang, Meixuan Li, Qianchuan Mi, and Rui Kong. 2024. "Dynamic Evaluation and Risk Projection of Heat Exposure Based on Disaster Events for Single-Season Rice along the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, China" Agronomy 14, no. 8: 1737. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14081737