Bank holiday weather: Rain or shine?

The rain has been relentless again at times this week.

Believe it or not, up to the start of the week May rainfall was at or below the monthly average for many parts of the UK. It was also the warmest first half of May on record.

Wednesday's rain changed all that. As a deep area of low pressure edged in from the North Sea, once again the rain gauges filled and roads and rivers flooded.

Some spots, including Rhyl in Denbighshire, Keswick and Carlisle in Cumbria and Loftus in North Yorkshire recorded over a month's worth of rain in less than 24 hours.

Edinburgh had 100mm of rain in 30 hours, well over a month's rain. This led to to the flooding we saw in the area.

All this, of course, follows on from the never-ending stream of soggy headlines detailing the wetter than average spring, a dull and wet April, and the second wettest six-month period on record for England between October and March.

It will probably be a bit of both.

No two days or places will look the same weather-wise and weather apps may struggle to pin down the showers towards the latter part of the weekend.

The good news is the ground will have had a chance to dry out on Friday as the weather system responsible for Wednesday's deluge fizzles away and the rain dies out. This will also bring welcome cheer, of course, to anyone hitting the roads for the holiday weekend.

Saturday looks more reliably dry with more sunshine and higher temperaures. Cloud coming in from the east could spoil part of the day for eastern England and bring a little rain.

Later on Saturday, south-west England and south Wales could see some rain as an Atlantic weather front arrives. This will signal a change to very different weather for the rest of the bank holiday.

With low pressure close by, we are expecting some thundery showers to spark off on Sunday and bank holiday Monday.

It's possible the Met Office will issue more weather warnings.

These showers could pop up almost anywhere, and with light winds and extra energy from daytime heating they could be torrential and slow-moving.

If you get a shower you will certainly know about it and are likely to spot the cloud building in advance. It's a game of chance.

Some places could stay dry with some warm sunshine at times and you could be completely oblivious to torrential downpours happening just a mile or so away.

Because of the potential for heavy showers, temperatures are going to be a little lower than on Saturday.

Meteorological spring continues for another week and it looks like maximum temperatures will remain around 16-18 Celsius for the rest of May.

South-westerly winds are expected next week but that means there will be some more rain at times.

Currently the first half of June, which marks the beginning of meteorological summer, looks warmer and drier in the south and east, more changeable and windy in the north and west.

While the Met Office predicts that wetter weather will be a feature of our changing climate in the UK, summers will actually get drier overall – with more heatwaves and droughts – but when rain does come it will be heavier, 20% more intense than it was in 1990.

The most violent downpours – more than 30mm of rain in an hour – are expected to occur twice as often as they used to.

This means the increased risk of flooding, with ground becoming saturated by persistent winter rainfall and drainage systems overwhelmed by summer deluges.

For the latest forecast – rain or shine – check BBC Weather online or our app.