Search Results (117)

Effective protection of highly mobile and data-poor species constitutes a great challenge amid growing ocean exploitation and use. Blue whales and bowhead whales in the North-East Atlantic face several threats, such as climate change, ship strikes, pollution, and entanglement in fishing gear. Consequently, the OSPAR (“Oslo-Paris Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic”) Commission recognised their need for protection and included them on the OSPAR List of Threatened and/or Declining Species. Two actions to protect these endangered species that OSPAR Contracting Parties have agreed on are (i) identifying areas that play an essential role in the species’ life cycle—subsequently called key habitats, and (ii) ensuring that those key habitats are covered by OSPAR marine protected areas (MPAs). In addition, OSPAR has committed to expanding its network of MPAs and other effective area-based conservation measures by 2030 to cover at least 30% of the OSPAR maritime area (termed the 30 × 30 target) from today’s approx. 11%. In this paper, we present the results of modelling key habitats for the bowhead and blue whales in the North-East Atlantic, including Arctic waters. Due to the sparse data situation for these species, we apply presence-only modelling methods. As this method can, in principle, produce somewhat biased results, we recommend that systematic, regular surveys on these species in Arctic waters be significantly intensified for future analyses to overcome the data paucity and allow using presence–absence/count data modelling approaches. Key habitats of blue whales were identified between Iceland and Svalbard, extending to the Azores. For bowhead whales, key habitats were identified in the Fram Strait. However, our findings show that only 11.8% of blue whale key habitats and 4.1% of bowhead whale key habitats are currently covered by OSPAR MPAs. To protect 30% of key habitats for these species in the most efficient way, our analyses suggest that suitable areas to designate new OSPAR MPAs are located around the Azores for blue whales and in the Fram Strait for bowhead whales. With these additional MPAs, OSPAR would substantially improve the protection of the two endangered species and, at the same time, progress towards its 30 × 30 target. Full article

This paper presents the results of a multidisciplinary study with the aim of assessing the potential combined risk from consuming locally harvested food products in the Euro-Arctic region of Norway, Finland, and Russia. The three important contaminant groups—radioactive substances, heavy metals, and persistent organic pollutants (POPs)—were measured in food samples such as berries, mushrooms, fish, birds, reindeer, and moose; they were sampled in 2013–2015. To assess the combined pollution levels and investigate the trends, similarities, and variations between different contaminant groups, subsequent multivariate statistical analysis was performed. The results showed that, in general, the levels of radioactive substances, toxic elements, and POPs were below the permitted EU maximum content in food products. However, statistical analysis revealed some correlations, similarities, and peculiarities between the accumulation of different contaminants in various species, which allowed for a better understanding of the mechanisms of accumulation and interaction between different contaminant groups. It also gave a better insight into the possible added risks and helped pinpoint species that could serve as reference markers for the accumulation of different contaminants in food. Mushrooms, fish, and reindeer were found to be important markers in the combined risk assessments for the contents of metals and radioactive substances. Further research, as well as the development of methodologies for combined assessments, are recommended. Full article

In the era of widespread edge computing, energy conservation modes like complete power shutdown are crucial for battery-powered devices, but they risk data loss in volatile memory. Energy autonomous systems, relying on ambient energy, face operational challenges due to power losses. Recent advancements in emerging nonvolatile memories (NVMs) like FRAM, RRAM, MRAM, and PCM offer mature solutions to sustain work progress with minimal energy overhead during outages. This paper thoroughly reviews utilizing emerging NVMs in microcontroller units (MCUs), comparing their key attributes to describe unique benefits and potential applications. Furthermore, we discuss the intricate details of NVM circuit design and NVM-driven compute-in-memory (CIM) architectures. In summary, integrating emerging NVMs into MCUs showcases promising prospects for next-generation applications such as Internet of Things and neural networks. Full article

The objective of this study was to reconstruct the last century’s climatic oscillations in the Arctic region around the Fram Strait using high-resolution analysis of foraminiferal assemblages as proxies for surface and deep-water mass properties. In this area, warm Atlantic water masses are advected to the Arctic Ocean through the West Spitsbergen Current, representing the northernmost tip of the Global Thermohaline Circulation. The interaction between the cold Arctic and the warm Atlantic water masses significantly influences the entire foraminiferal community. Planktic species such as Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Turborotalita quinqueloba are respectively used as indicators of cold Arctic water and warm Atlantic water masses. Among the main benthic species, Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi, Epistominella exigua, and Oridorsalis tener stand out, serving as proxies for the bottom water mass current velocity and paleoproductivity. The paleoenvironmental reconstruction obtained with the foraminiferal assemblages, together with data from satellite monitoring of the sea ice extent and the long-term record of the annual temperature of the West Spitsbergen Current measured over the last 50 years, support the evidence of a progressively rising heat influx into the Arctic Ocean due to an increasing Atlantic water inflow, forcing the consequent decay of the sea ice extent. Full article

In an increasingly complex world there is a real, urgent need for methodologies to enable engineers to model complex sociotechnical systems, as these now seem to describe the majority of systems in use today. This is, of course, exacerbated by the increasing involvement and augmentation with “black box” AI contributions. Hollnagel produced a methodology (FRAM) which did allow the analyst insights into these systems’ behaviour, but the model-based system engineering applications demand numbers and a quantitative approach. In the last 10 years, this original approach, developed to model systems as sets of interactive, interdependent “functions” (abstracted from agent or component details), has been further developed to the point where it can take the basic data and structures from the current component-focussed system engineering “models”, and can pull them all together into dynamic models (as opposed to the static, fixed System Theoretic Process Accimaps) from which analysts can discern how they really work in practice, and predict the emergent behaviours characteristic of complex systems. This paper describes how the FRAM methodology has now been extended to provide these extra, essential attributes. It also describes its implementation using an open-source software, freely available for use and verification on the GitHub site. Full article

Marine plastic pollution is currently one of the most serious environmental threats. In this study, based on scenario calculations for a five-year period, we analyzed the possible spread of microplastics carried by Siberian rivers to the Kara Sea shelf. The Lagrangian particle model used daily data from 3D numerical modeling to simulate microplastic transport by ocean currents and sea ice drift. The results of a series of scenario calculations show how the distribution of particles and their subsequent deposition depend on their type (density), size, processes of freezing into the ice, and biofouling (accumulation of microorganisms). The crucial influence of the effects of microplastic embedding in sea ice and particle biofouling on the trajectories of floating particles and their deposition on the seafloor is highlighted. The transport of light particles of microplastics from Siberian rivers by ice can contribute to the pollution of the Barents Sea, in addition to their more active outflow through the Fram Strait. Biofouling is a driver of microplastic deposition on the shelf bottom or transport along the continental slope in a cyclonic direction following the trajectory of the Atlantic waters. Full article

In this study, we consider the human body and the healthcare system as two complex networks and use theories regarding entropy, requisite variety, and network centrality metrics with resilience to assess and quantify the strengths and weaknesses of healthcare systems. Entropy is used to quantify the uncertainty and variety regarding a patient’s health state. The extent of the entropy defines the requisite variety a healthcare system should contain to be able to treat a patient safely and correctly. We use network centrality metrics to visualize and quantify the healthcare system as a network and assign the strengths and weaknesses of the network and of individual agents in the network. We apply organization design theories to formulate improvements and explain how a healthcare system should adjust to create a more robust and resilient healthcare system that is able to continuously deal with variations and uncertainties regarding a patient’s health, despite possible stressors and disturbances at the healthcare system. In this article, these concepts and theories are explained and applied to a fictive and a real-life example. We conclude that entropy and network science can be used as tools to quantify the resilience of healthcare systems. Full article

Lakes in the High Arctic are characterized by their low water temperature, long-term ice cover, low levels of nutrients, and low biodiversity. These conditions mean that minor climatic changes may be of great importance to Arctic freshwater organisms, including fish, by influencing vital life history parameters such as individual growth rates. In this study, Arctic charr sampled from two Svalbard lakes (78–79° N) over the period 1960–2008 provided back-calculated length-at-age information extending over six decades, covering both warm and cold spells. The estimated annual growth in young-of-the-year (YOY) Arctic charr correlated positively with an increasing air temperature in summer. This increase is likely due to the higher water temperature during the ice-free period, and also to some extent, due to the winter air temperature; this is probably due to thinner ice being formed in mild winters and the subsequent earlier ice break-up. However, years with higher snow accumulation correlated with slower growth rates, which may be due to delayed ice break-up and thus a shorter summer growing season. More than 30% of the growth in YOY charr could be explained specifically by air temperature and snow accumulation in the two Arctic charr populations. This indicated that juvenile Svalbard Arctic charr may experience increased growth rates in a future warmer climate, although future increases in precipitation may contradict the positive effects of higher temperatures to some extent. In the longer term, a warmer climate may lead to the complete loss of many glaciers in western Svalbard; therefore, rivers may dry out, thus hindering migration between salt water and fresh water for migratory fish. In the worst-case scenario, the highly valuable and attractive anadromous Arctic charr populations could eventually disappear from the Svalbard lake systems. Full article

Nowadays, services related to IT technologies have assumed paramount importance in most sectors, creating complex systems involving different stakeholders. Such systems are subject to unpredictable risks that differ from what is usually expected and cannot be properly managed using traditional risk assessment approaches. Consequently, ensuring their reliability represents a critical task for companies, which need to adopt resilience engineering tools to reduce the occurrence of failures and malfunctions. With this goal in mind, the current study proposes a risk assessment procedure for cloud migration processes that integrates the application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) with tools aimed at defining specific performance requirements for the suppliers of this service. In particular, the Critical-To-Quality (CTQ) method was used to define the quality drivers of the IT platform customers, while technical standards were applied to define requirements for a security management system, including aspects relevant to the supply chain. Such an approach was verified by means of its application to a real-life case study, which concerns the analysis of the risks inherent to the supply chain related to cloud migration. The results achieved can contribute to augmenting knowledge in the field of IT systems’ risk assessment, providing a base for further research. Full article

Phosphorus is a critical, irreplaceable raw material, and developing methods to recover P from secondary sources such as sewage sludge ash (SSA) is crucial. Two-compartment electrodialytic extraction (2C-ED) is one method where an electric DC field is applied to extract P and separate heavy metals simultaneously. Several process parameters influence 2C-ED, and they influence each other mutually. This paper explores chemometrics modeling to give insight into the 2C-ED process and, specifically, optimization of the experimental parameters towards 80% P extraction. A projections-to-latent-structures model was constructed based on new 2C-ED experiments conducted with one SSA type. The model was stable (high correlation factor and predictive power). Variable importance in the projection (VIP) plots showed that the influence of the variables was in the order: current > duration > L:S ratio > stirring velocity > dispersion solution (weak acid or distilled water). Contour plots were used for exploring different P extraction strategies. For example, more P mass per unit current was extracted at an L:S ratio of 7 compared to L:S 14. This shows that treating a thicker SSA suspension is preferable to optimize the current efficiency. The chemometric model proved valuable for optimizing the 2C-ED process and future scale-up. Full article

The seawater microbiome is crucial in marine ecosystems because of its role in food chains and biogeochemical cycles; thus, we studied the composition of the pelagic marine microbiome collected in the upper 50 m on the opposite sides of Fram Strait: Spitsbergen and Greenland shelves. We found out that it differed significantly, with salinity being the main environmental variable responsible for these differences. The Spitsbergen shelf was dominated by Atlantic Waters, with a rather homogenous water column in terms of salinity and temperature down to 300 m; hence, the marine microbial community was also homogenous at all sampled depths (0, 25, 50 m). On the contrary, stations on the Greenland shelf were exposed to different water masses of both Arctic and Atlantic origin, which resulted in a more diverse microbial community there. Unexpectedly, for the very first time, we identified cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus marinus in Arctic waters (Spitsbergen shelf, 75–77° N). Till now, the distribution of this cyanobacteria in oceans has been described only between 40° N and 40° S. Considering the accelerated rate of climate warming in the Arctic, our results indicated that the seawater microbiome can be viewed as an amplifier of global change and that the Atlantification is in progress. Full article

Collision risk in ship pilotage process has complex characteristics that are dynamic, uncertain, and emergent. To reveal collision risk resonance during ship pilotage process, a hybrid probabilistic risk analysis approach is proposed, which integrates the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), Dempster–Shafer (D–S) evidence theory, and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. First, FRAM is used to qualitatively describe the coupling relationship and operation mechanism among the functions of the pilotage operation system. Then, the D–S evidence theory is used to determine the probability distribution of the function output in the specified pilotage scenario after quantitatively expressing the function variability, coupling effect, and the influence of operation conditions through rating scales. Finally, MC simulation is used to calculate the aggregated coupling variability between functions, and the critical couplings and risk resonance paths under different scenarios are identified by setting the threshold and confidence level. The results show that ship collision risk transmission is caused by function resonance in the pilotage system, and the function resonance paths vary with pilotage scenarios. The critical coupling ‘F2-F7(I)’ emerges as a consistent factor in both scenarios, emphasizing the significance of maintaining a proper lookout. The hybrid probabilistic risk analytical approach to ship pilotage risk resonance with FRAM can be a useful method for analysing the causative mechanism of ship operational risk. Full article

Paediatric homecare is an advancing field of healthcare, bringing care direct to patients in their own homes. Risk management is an integral component of homecare services, including incident and risk assessment management. The objective of the study was to investigate risk management in homecare focusing on two aspects: incident reporting and risk assessments. A Grounded Theory approach was used to gather key functions of these aspects; these were then mapped using the Functional Resonance Analysis method (FRAM). Nineteen nurses working in paediatric homecare services were interviewed for the study. The interviews were semi-structured and focused on risk, quality, complaints, audit, care, and management. The interview data were transcribed and coded using Nvivo; the data were then converted into functions for utilization in the FRAM tool. The FRAM detailed the process of incident reporting and risk assessment management of the actual work carried out as viewed by the participants of the study. The information was then analysed and contrasted with the organizational policy to gain an understanding of the systems of incident reporting and risk assessments, which then led to the development of a refined process that could have less variability in function. Consequently, changes to policy and training in risk management were recommended to enhance the systems. Full article

The levels of informatization, automation, and intelligence are continuously improving; however, the risks associated with the increased design and operational complexity of ship systems are increasing. Large-scale ship accidents can occur for several reasons. Existing accident analysis methods that examine marine accidents from the perspective of causal one-to-one correspondence have limitations in systematically analyzing complex marine risks during cause identification for the prevention of similar accidents. This study focuses on a systematic causality analysis of the factors related to human error in marine accidents that may occur during the arrival and departure of mega container ships. In particular, a representative case of the Motor Vessel (MV) Milano Bridge crane contact accident at Busan New Port is considered. To explore the complex organizational–technical, human–technical, and organizational–human relationships relevant to this case, human factors (seafarer, pilot, etc.) that are closely related to the linked causes were analyzed using the functional resonance analysis method. This study aims to reduce human error and prevent marine accidents, including pilotage. Full article

The impacts of climate change on the health of marine mammals are increasingly being recognised. Given the rapid rate of environmental change in the Arctic, the potential ramifications on the health of marine mammals in this region are a particular concern. There are eleven endemic Arctic marine mammal species (AMMs) comprising three cetaceans, seven pinnipeds, and the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). All of these species are dependent on sea ice for survival, particularly those requiring ice for breeding. As air and water temperatures increase, additional species previously non-resident in Arctic waters are extending their ranges northward, leading to greater species overlaps and a concomitant increased risk of disease transmission. In this study, we review the literature documenting disease presence in Arctic marine mammals to understand the current causes of morbidity and mortality in these species and forecast future disease issues. Our review highlights potential pathogen occurrence in a changing Arctic environment, discussing surveillance methods for 35 specific pathogens, identifying risk factors associated with these diseases, as well as making recommendations for future monitoring for emerging pathogens. Several of the pathogens discussed have the potential to cause unusual mortality events in AMMs. Brucella, morbillivirus, influenza A virus, and Toxoplasma gondii are all of concern, particularly with the relative naivety of the immune systems of endemic Arctic species. There is a clear need for increased surveillance to understand baseline disease levels and address the gravity of the predicted impacts of climate change on marine mammal species. Full article