Search Results (135)

This study presents a high-resolution record of δ¹⁵N_sed, which serves as a proxy for water column denitrification and oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) intensity, from the Soledad Basin in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific OMZ. The Soledad Basin δ¹⁵N_sed record is compared to the Pescadero Slope and Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) δ¹⁵N_sed records to gain insight into regional variations in the ETNP OMZ. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950–1250 CE), Soledad Basin, Pescadero Slope, and SBB records exhibit coherent trends suggesting that there was general water column oxygenation stability. During the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1350–1850 CE), Soledad Basin and SBB showed a similar decreasing trend in δ¹⁵N_sed values while the Pescadero Slope δ¹⁵N_sed exhibited an increasing trend until values abruptly declined between 1740 and 1840 CE. We suggest that increased δ¹⁵N_sed variability and the different trends at the Pescadero Slope during the LIA are due to the influence of the North American monsoon (NAM), which can suppress upwelling when enhanced and result in OMZ contraction. The decoupling between the Soledad Basin, SBB, and the Pescadero Slope could also be due to the increased influence of enriched ¹⁵NO₃⁻ subarctic waters in the California Current System. Since each site is influenced by local productivity, basin morphology, and regional atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns, we suggest that assessing OMZ fluctuations from multiple sites provides a more comprehensive view of regional OMZ dynamics in response to climate variations. Full article

Analysis of observations, reanalysis, and model simulations, including those using machine learning methods specifically designed for regime identification, has revealed changes in aspects of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation and Australian climate and extremes over the last half-century that indicate transitions to new states. In particular, our analysis shows a dramatic shift in the metastability of the SH climate that occurred in the late 1970s, associated with a large-scale regime transition in the SH atmospheric circulation, with systematic changes in the subtropical jet, blocking, zonal winds, and storm tracks. Analysis via nonstationary clustering reveals a regime shift coincident with a sharp transition to warmer oceanic sea surface temperatures and increased baroclinicity in the large scales of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC), extending across the whole hemisphere. At the same time, the background state of the tropical Pacific thermocline shoaled, leading to an increased likelihood of El Niño events. The SH climate shift in the late 1970s is the first hemispheric regime shift that can be directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change. These changes in dynamics are associated with additional regional tipping points, including reductions in mean and extreme rainfall in south-west Western Australia (SWWA) and streamflow into Perth dams, and also with increases in mean and extreme rainfall over northern Australia since the late 1970s. The drying of south-eastern Australia (SEA) occurred against a background of accelerating increases in average and extreme temperatures across the whole continent since the 1990s, implying further inflection points may have occurred. Analysis of climate model simulations capturing the essence of these observed shifts indicates that these systematic changes will continue into the late 21st century under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Here, we review two decades of work, revealing for the first time that tipping points characteristic of regime transitions are inferred to have already occurred in the SH climate system. Full article

Freshwater availability in Pacific equatorial atolls is highly variable because of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall. IPCC projections for the central and western tropical Pacific suggest annual rainfall (P_a) will increase as sea surface temperature (SST) rises. Future changes in ENSO frequency and intensity and in hydrological droughts, however, are uncertain. Here, trends in monthly, seasonal, annual, annual maximum, and minimum rainfall in two equatorial atolls in the eastern and central tropical Pacific are compared with trends in the SST of the surrounding Nino regions from 1951 to 2023. Significant increasing trends in the warm season, annual, and annual maximum SST in the Nino1 + 2, Nino3, and Nino4 regions were of order +1.0 °C/100 y. There were no significant trends in the cool season or annual minimum SST. Despite ocean warming, there were no significant trends in atoll P_a, in intra-annual or interannual variability over 7 decades for either SST or P_a, or in the relative strengths of warm/cool and wet/dry seasons. Extreme, large P_a only occurred after 1987, indicative of ocean warming. Extreme, small P_a happened throughout the period, suggesting no change in drought frequency. Correlations between 12-month P and SST were very strong, with historic rates of increases in P_a of around 1200 mm/y/°C, consistent with projections. The results indicate that the recharge of atoll groundwater will increase as oceans warm, but droughts will remain a major challenge. Full article

A typical Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) generates a large region of enhanced rainfall over the equatorial Indian Ocean that moves slowly eastward into the western Pacific. Tropical cyclones often form on the poleward edges of the MJO moist-convective envelope, frequently impacting both southeast Asia and northern Australia, and on occasion Eastern Africa. This paper addresses the question of whether these MJO-induced tropical cyclones will become more numerous in the future as the oceans warm. The Lagrangian Atmosphere Model (LAM), which has been carefully tuned to simulate realistic MJO circulations, is used to study the sensitivity of MJO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) to global warming. A control simulation for the current climate is compared with a simulation with enhanced radiative forcing consistent with that for the latter part of the 21st century under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 585. The LAM control run reproduces the observed MJO modulation of TCG, with about 70 percent more storms forming than monthly climatology predicts within the MJO’s convective envelope. The LAM SSP585 run suggests that TCG enhancement within the convective envelope could reach 170 percent of the background value under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, owing to a strengthening of Kelvin and Rossby wave components of the MJO’s circulation. Full article

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and flavors, as well as off-equatorial climate modes, strongly influence sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the eastern tropical Pacific and downstream climate. Prior studies rely on EOFs (which characterize fractional SST variance) to diagnose climate-scale SST structures, limiting the ability to link individual ENSO flavors with downstream phenomena. Hierarchical and k-means clustering methods are used to construct Eastern Pacific patterns from the ERSST dataset spanning 1950 to 2021. Cluster analysis allows for the direct linkage of individual SST years/seasons to ENSO phase, providing insight into ENSO flavors and associated downstream impacts. In this study, four clusters are revealed, each depicting unique SST patterns influenced by ENSO and Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) phases. A case study demonstrating the utility of the clusters was also carried out using accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Results showed that Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño suppresses Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity, while Central Pacific (CP) La Niña enhances it. Further, EP El Niño, coupled with positive PMM, amplifies ACE. Ultimately, the methods used herein offer a cleaner analysis tool for identifying dominant SSTA patterns and employing those patterns to diagnose downstream climatic effects. Full article

In this study, the multi-year data of meteorology and O₃ from remote sensing and ground observations are applied to characterize the 3-D changes of O₃ in the troposphere over central and eastern China (CEC) induced by the tropical cyclones (TCs) in the tropical and subtropical ocean regions over Northwest Pacific. The CEC-regional average of near-surface O₃ levels is significantly elevated with 6.0 ppb in the large coverage by the TCs in the subtropical ocean, while the TCs in the tropical ocean alter near-surface O₃ weakly, indicating the latitudinal-located TCs in the subtropical offshore ocean could largely influence the O₃ variations over CEC. The sub-seasonal change with the positive and negative anomalies of near-surface O₃ is induced by the tropical TCs from June to July and from August to October. The peripheral circulation of TCs in the subtropical offshore ocean persistently enhances the O₃ concentrations over CEC during the season of East Asian summer monsoons. The positive O₃ anomalies maintain from the entire troposphere to the lower stratosphere over CEC in the peripheries of subtropical TCs, while the tropical TCs cause the positive O₃ anomalies merely in the lower troposphere. The O₃ transport and accumulation, photochemical production and stratospheric intrusion are climatologically confirmed as the major meteorological mechanisms of TCs affecting the O₃ variations. This study reveals that the downward transport of stratospheric O₃ of TCs in the subtropical ocean exerts a large impact on the atmospheric environment over CEC, while the regional O₃ transport and photochemical productions dominate the lower troposphere over CEC with less impact of stratospheric intrusion from the TCs in the tropical ocean region. These results present the climatology of tropospheric O₃ anomalies in China induced by the TCs over the Northwest Pacific with enhancing our comprehension of the meteorological impact on O₃ variations over the East Asian monsoon region. Full article

Fast atmospheric processes such as deep convection and severe storms are challenging to observe and understand without adequate spatiotemporal sampling. Geostationary (GEO) imaging has the advantage of tracking these fast processes continuously at a cadence of the 10 min global and 1 min mesoscale from thermal infrared (TIR) channels. More importantly, the newly-available GEO-GEO stereo observations from our 3D-Wind algorithm provide more accurate height assignment for atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) than those from conventional TIR methods. Unlike the radiometric methods, the stereo height is insensitive to radiometric TIR calibration of satellite sensors and can assign the feature height correctly under complex situation (e.g., multi-layer clouds and atmospheric inversion). This paper shows a case study from continuous GEO-GEO stereo observations over the Eastern Pacific during 1–5 February 2023, to highlight diurnal variations of clouds and dynamics in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), altocumulus/congestus, convective outflow and tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Because of their good vertical resolution, the stereo observations often show a wind shear in these cloud layers. As an example, the stereo winds reveal the classic Ekman spiral in marine PBL dynamics with a clockwise (counterclockwise) wind direction change with height in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere subtropics. Over the Southeastern Pacific, the stereo cloud observations show a clear diurnal variation in the closed-to-open cell transition in the PBL and evidence of precipitation at a lower level from broken stratocumulus clouds. Full article

Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) modulates the generation of typhoons (TYs) in the western North Pacific (WNP). Using IBTrACS v04 tropical cyclone best path data, ERA5 reanalysis data, and the MJO index from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), this paper defines an index to describe the persistent anomalies of the MJO and to examine the statistical characteristics of TYs over 44 years (1978–2021), focusing on the analysis of major differences in environmental conditions after the removal of the ENSO signal over the WNP. The results indicate that the persistent anomalous state of the MJO influences the change in large-scale environmental factors, which, in turn, affects the generation of TYs, as follows: (1) For the I high-value years, the center of the MJO stagnates in the Indian Ocean–South China Sea (SCS), the monsoon trough retreats westward, the warm pool becomes warmer, and the Walker circulation is enhanced. There is stronger upper-level divergence and low-level convergence, larger low-level relative vorticity, higher mid-level relative humidity, and smaller vertical wind shear in the SCS and the seas near the Philippines. Consequently, these conditions foster a conducive environment for TY genesis in the SCS and the seas near the Philippines. (2) For the I low-value years, the center of the MJO stagnates in the WNP–North America region, the monsoon trough extends eastward, the warm pool becomes colder, and the Walker circulation is weakened. Consequently, these conditions are more likely to facilitate TY genesis in the central–eastern WNP. The results show that persistent anomalies in MJO active centers can effectively improve the predictive ability of TY frequency. Full article

During the last 50 years, the increase in the efforts of the longline fleet in the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) resulted in an increase in the capture of the swordfish Xiphias gladius. We analyzed a historical database of swordfish catches (1980–2020) reported by the industrial longline fleet to the Inter-American Tuna Tropical Commission (IATTC), which contains catch and effort data aggregated in monthly quadrants of 5° × 5° in the EPO. The swordfish catch reported by the international longline fleets was analyzed to evaluate the spatiotemporal variation of the catch and the different phases through which this important fishery has gone through. Different statistical models such as the Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) and the breaks for additive season and trend BFAST algorithm were used for the decomposition of the time series. Results indicated that the effort directed towards the swordfish increased in recent years and that the highest catches occurred by Peru. The adjusted GAMM explained 80% of the total temporal variation of the swordfish catch per unit effort CPUE and had a 90% prediction efficiency. The BFAST algorithm found three break points in the time series of the standardized CPUE, points associated with abrupt changes, thus defining four distinct periods, all of them statistically significant. According to the BFAST model, the current trend of swordfish CPUE is upward. It is recommended to take this finding with caution to obtain the sustainable exploitation of the swordfish fishery resource. Full article

Using typhoon data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration, the Japan Meteorological Agency’s annual Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1951 to 2021, correlation and composite analyses were carried out to study the relationship between the variability among tropical cyclones of different magnitudes affecting South China and the PDO. The results show that there is an obvious out-of-phase relationship between the proportion of tropical cyclones reaching a typhoon-level intensity or above in South China and the PDO index. When the PDO is in a cold (warm) phase, the sea surface temperature in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific is cold (warm), similar to the eastern Pacific La Niña (El Niño) phenomenon, and the SST in the eastern and western tropical Pacific Ocean shows a negative (positive) gradient; the subtropical high in the western Pacific Ocean is weaker (stronger) than normal, with the western ridge point to the east (west), and the 500 hPa geopotential height in the South China Sea and the area east of the Philippines is weaker (stronger), which is conducive to (unfavorable to) the formation of a monsoon trough; and the westerly (easterly) winds at high altitudes and the southwesterly (northeasterly) winds at low altitudes from the South China Sea to the Philippines are abnormally strong, and a positive (negative) vorticity at low altitudes, a low (high) sea level pressure, and strong (weak) convection are shown. These conditions are favorable (unfavorable) for the intensification of typhoons affecting South China, and as a result, the number of tropical cyclones reaching the level of typhoons or above account for a greater (smaller) proportion of those affecting South China. Full article

The westerly circulation and the monsoon circulation are the two major atmospheric circulation systems affecting the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which have significant impacts on climate and environmental changes in the middle latitudes. However, until now, people’s understanding of the long-term paleoenvironmental changes in the westerly- and monsoon-controlled areas in China’s middle latitudes is not uniform, and the phase relationship between the two at different time scales is also controversial, especially the exception to the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” paradigm in global warming between the two. Based on the existing literature data published, integrated paleoenvironmental records, and comprehensive simulation results in recent years, this study systematically reviews the climate and environmental changes in the two major circulation regions in the mid-latitudes of China since the Middle Pleistocene, with a focus on exploring the phase relationship between the two systems at different time scales and its influencing mechanism. Through the reanalysis and comparative analysis of the existing data, we conclude that the interaction and relationship between the two circulation systems are relatively strong and close during the warm periods, but relatively weak during the cold periods. From the perspective of orbital, suborbital, and millennium time scales, the phase relationship between the westerly and Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulations shows roughly in-phase, out-of-phase, and anti-phase transitions, respectively. There are significant differences between the impacts of the westerly and ASM circulations on the middle-latitude regions of northwest China, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and eastern China. However, under the combined influence of varied environmental factors such as BHLSR (boreal high-latitude solar radiation), SST (sea surface temperature), AMOC (north Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), NHI (Northern Hemisphere ice volume), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone), WPSH (western Pacific subtropical high), TIOA (tropical Indian Ocean anomaly), ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), CGT/SRP (global teleconnection/Silk Road pattern), etc., there is a complex and close coupling relationship between the two, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider their “multi-factor’s joint-action” mechanism and impact, while, in general, the dynamic mechanisms driving the changes of the westerly and ASM circulations are not the same at different time scales, such as orbital, suborbital, centennial to millennium, and decadal to interannual, which also leads to the formation of different types of phase relationships between the two at different time scales. Future studies need to focus on the impact of this “multi-factor linkage mechanism” and “multi-phase relationship” in distinguishing the interaction between the westerly and ASM circulation systems in terms of orbital, suborbital, millennium, and sub-millennium time scales. Full article

This study investigates the interdecadal change in the covariability between the Tibetan Plateau (TP) east–west dipole precipitation and Indian precipitation during summer and primarily explores the modulation of atmospheric circulation anomalies on the covariability. The results reveal that the western TP precipitation (WTPP), eastern TP precipitation (ETPP), and northwestern Indian precipitation (NWIP) have covariability, with an in-phase variation between the WTPP and NWIP and an out-of-phase variation between the WTPP and ETPP. Moreover, this covariability was unclear during 1981–2004 and became significant during 2005–2019, showing a clear interdecadal change. During 2005–2019, a thick geopotential height anomaly, which tilted slightly northward, governed the TP, forming upper- and lower-level coupled circulation anomalies (i.e., anomalous upper-level westerlies over the TP and lower-level southeasterlies and northeasterlies around the southern flank of the TP). As such, the upper- and lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies synergistically modulate the summer WTPP, ETPP, and NWIP, causing the covariability of summer precipitation over the TP and India during 2005–2019. The upper- or lower-level circulation anomalies cannot independently result in significant precipitation covariability. During 1981–2004, the upper- and lower-level circulation anomalies were not strongly coupled, which caused precipitation non-covariability. The sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and tropical Atlantic (TA) may synergistically modulate the upper- and lower-level coupled circulation anomalies, contributing to the covariability of the WTPP, ETPP, and NWIP during 2005–2019. The modulation of the WNP and TA SSTs on the coupled circulation anomalies was weaker during 1981–2004, which was therefore not conducive to this precipitation covariability. This study may provide valuable insights into the characteristics and mechanisms of spatiotemporal variation in summer precipitation over the TP and its adjacent regions, thus offering scientific support for local water resource management, ecological environment protection, and social and economic development. Full article

The oceanic island of Malpelo, 380 km west of the Colombian mainland, stands out from other islands of the Tropical Eastern Pacific by its harsh environment and depauperate flora and fauna, thus imposing strong selective pressure on the small number of invertebrates that inhabit it. The endemic taxon described here, Dyscolus (Cacothrix) malpelensis, n. subgen., n. sp. (Carabidae, Platynini), is a remarkable example of adaptation to this unique ecosystem. The modifications of its body shape, including a tight coaptation of elytra and pronotum, might be a response to strong environmental constraints, from predation by lizards and land crabs to the absence of deep soil that forces the beetle to seek shelter in caves and rock crevices. Full article

Eastern Xinjiang, as a typical extremely arid area, exhibits a high sensitivity to climate change. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the climatic changes in this region, along with their driving mechanisms, and comparing these with the broader trend of “warming and humidifying” in the Northwest can provide a scientific foundation for adapting to and addressing climate change. Based on a study of precipitation and temperature data from seven meteorological stations in Eastern Xinjiang from 1960 to 2022, the following findings were observed: (1) The climate of eastern Xinjiang is generally characterized by a warming and humidifying trend, with the rates of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation being 0.39 °C/10 a and 3.32 mm/10 a. The eastern part of Xinjiang has less precipitation, with a lower growth rate than that of the neighboring regions, and higher temperatures, with a higher growth rate than that of the neighboring regions. (2) The first principal component of precipitation explains 47.85% of the variation in total precipitation, with a significant upward trend (p < 0.05) and an abrupt change in the late 1970s. It contains strong signals of regional precipitation, temperature, and dry and wet changes. (3) The increase in the first principal component of annual precipitation in eastern Xinjiang is mainly related to the warming of SSTs in the Indian Ocean and the central-eastern part of the tropical southern Pacific Ocean as well as the weakening of the Asian monsoon. Full article

A remarkable intraseasonal reversal of temperature anomaly is witnessed in eastern China in early 2022, characterized by a warm January and a cold February. ERA5 daily reanalysis data, multiple regression and the Linear Baroclinic Model (LBM) are employed to investigate the characteristics and causes of this abnormal temperature Pattern. The findings indicate that: (1) The two Rossby wave trains along the south and north westerly jets over Eurasia have synergistic impacts on middle and high latitudes. In January, the south branch Rossby wave train exhibited a positive phase, coinciding with a negative phase in the north branch wave train. As a result, the south trough strengthens, while the north trough weakens, leading to anomalous warm advection that warms eastern China. In February, the phases of these two Rossby waves are reversed, causing anomalous cold advection as the southern trough diminishes and the northern trough intensifies, resulting in colder conditions in eastern China. (2) Tropical convection activity weakens in January, whereas it intensifies in February in the northeast Indian Ocean. The weakening of the East Asian trough as a result of the convective latent heat anomalies caused an anticyclonic circulation over the Korean Peninsula in January through the Pacific-Japan teleconnection-like pattern, which is necessary for the maintenance of warm anomalies. Conversely, increased convective activity in February induces cyclonic circulation, deepening the East Asian trough over the Korean Peninsula and contributing to the persistence of cold anomalies. (3) The Rossby wave trains along the two westerly jets and the tropical convective activity in the northeastern Indian Ocean work in tandem, simultaneously strengthening or weakening the East Asian trough. Consequently, the East Asian trough weakens in January and strengthens in February. Full article