Another good article (no surprise). The surprising thing is everyone can see that Putin is not going to give up fighting this early but seems to think the Ukrainians can be persuaded to. It's dumb to even try - it'll just give the Ukrainians practice in not listening to you - hardly what 'realistic' diplomacy is supposed to be about.
I assume the Ukrainians are planning a 'long game'. They know they aren't going anywhere and have hopes Russia is made to bleed and suffer, on what is after all foreign soil, they may tire of it. Perhaps not in months but perhaps in years. The difference is that they have the tools and expertise to add to Russian attrition and misery with conventional forces rather than merely relying on an insurgency, which after all worked in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It also seems to me everyone over-estimates the impact of sanctions in the short term and under-estimate the their impact over the very long term. Occupying forces cost money and in the not too distant future Russia is going to be selling a lot less hydro-carbons - which was about all their economy was good at in the first place.
Another good article (no surprise). The surprising thing is everyone can see that Putin is not going to give up fighting this early but seems to think the Ukrainians can be persuaded to. It's dumb to even try - it'll just give the Ukrainians practice in not listening to you - hardly what 'realistic' diplomacy is supposed to be about.
I assume the Ukrainians are planning a 'long game'. They know they aren't going anywhere and have hopes Russia is made to bleed and suffer, on what is after all foreign soil, they may tire of it. Perhaps not in months but perhaps in years. The difference is that they have the tools and expertise to add to Russian attrition and misery with conventional forces rather than merely relying on an insurgency, which after all worked in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It also seems to me everyone over-estimates the impact of sanctions in the short term and under-estimate the their impact over the very long term. Occupying forces cost money and in the not too distant future Russia is going to be selling a lot less hydro-carbons - which was about all their economy was good at in the first place.