It isn’t hard to see why Leicester City find themselves in the predicament they are in.
While they have scored 37 Premier League goals in their 26 games, as many as Newcastle United, who are chasing a Champions League spot in fifth place, Brendan Rodgers’ side have conceded 46 goals, the third most in the league. Only Nottingham Forest (47) and Bournemouth (51) have conceded more — and the latter’s total is skewed by losing 9-0 at Liverpool early in the season.
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Other than a spell between the September international break and the World Cup in November, when they kept six clean sheets in eight Premier League games, Leicester just haven’t been able to keep the ball out of their net.
Their last Premier League clean sheet came at West Ham United, on November 12; Leicester have played 11 top-flight games since then. It is fair to say that with a little more defensive solidity and resilience, their relegation fears would be almost non-existent.
Even more so than with goalscoring, defending is reliant on the collective and every player has to do their part, starting at the top end of the pitch with the pressing, through to the midfield and then the back line, but it has been too easy to cut through Leicester.
It has been like playing post-match bingo at times, with Rodgers repeatedly bemoaning a lack of aggression in their defending and passivity in defence that is undermining their attacking work.
Get your dibbers, your dabbers and your dobbers ready. Eyes down…
“We were too passive.” Yep, got that one.
“We lacked aggression.” Yes, got that one too.
“We lacked intensity.” BINGO!
Kai Havertz’s goal just before half time in last Saturday’s defeat to Chelsea was a classic example. There is no pressure at all on Enzo Fernandez and he has time outside the area to look up and weigh a lobbed pass over the top for Havertz, helped by the fact that no defender reacts to prevent the Chelsea striker’s run. The finish was excellent, but he should never have been given the opportunity.
Havertz’s finish was sublime and so was Mateo Kovacic’s volley for the third. Goalkeeper Danny Ward was left helpless on both occasions.
It has certainly been a difficult first season as Leicester’s No 1 for the Wales international. For four years he waited patiently for a chance to step up and succeed Kasper Schmeichel.
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The Dane’s form over 11 seasons was incredible at times. Some of the saves he made were world class and he bailed Leicester out on countless occasions. There were mistakes — some of them glaring — but they were few and far between.
He also played mainly behind an invariably decent defensive unit.
Unfortunately, Ward has stepped in at arguably the most vulnerable period a Leicester goalkeeper has experienced in the Premier League. Ward has faced 117 non-penalty shots on target this season, an average of 4.5 per game. He has made 78 saves with a save percentage of 63 per cent and is conceding 1.8 goals per game.
But those raw statistics don’t really show how effective he has been, so the statistical minds at The Athletic took a deeper look, using expected goals on target (xGOT) conceded, which takes into account the quality of the shots a goalkeeper faces, considering factors such as placement within the goal and angle from which the shot was taken.
The four own goals conceded by Leicester this season (Luke Thomas at Brighton, Harry Souttar at Aston Villa and Wout Faes’ unfortunate double at Liverpool) and the two penalties scored against them (Ward has saved one penalty this season) are not included.
Essentially, the higher the number, the more the keeper is expected to concede.
We can then compare that number with the actual number of goals conceded to see if a goalkeeper is over-performing or under-performing — this is captured by ‘goals prevented’.
From the table, we can see Ward is the fifth-worst shot-stopper of all keepers with over 900 minutes this season.
Everton’s Jordan Pickford and Fulham’s Bernd Leno have both conceded more xGOT, but Ward has conceded the most goals, under-performing by 5.46. In short, he’s very busy, but he’s still conceding more than he should be expected to — whereas a keeper like Leno is even busier but is keeping more out than expected. Fulham, in ninth, are reaping the benefits.
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It isn’t as if Ward has been making a lot of obvious mistakes this season. He isn’t ‘throwing it in’. Chelsea’s first goal was a well-executed volley from Ben Chilwell, but Ward didn’t seem set for it. He was pointing and giving instructions to his teammates as Chilwell was lining up his shot and, as a result, was beaten at his near post.
Ward rarely gives the impression that he will make the save when Leicester concede a good chance — a complete contrast to Schmeichel.
The Dane, like his father, was famed for his ability in one-on-one situations, with his handball-style, spread eagle stance. Ward doesn’t seem to be as convincing in these situations and seems to show too much of the far side of his goal when the opponent is shooting from an angle.
Also, from range, only Nottingham Forest’s Dean Henderson has conceded more shots from outside the box (12 to Ward’s 10). Partly because Leicester are conceding so many more shots than other teams but, having conceded around 9.1 xGOT from outside the box, Ward is even underperforming when it comes to keeping out shots from distance this season.
So, should Rodgers make a change and bring in young Danish keeper Daniel Iversen, or even experienced No 3 Alex Smithies? The manager certainly seemed to hint he was considering making a change.
“I think that it’s something that we look at and Danny will be no different to the outfield players that if we feel we need to make a change that’s something that I will take responsibility for and do,” Rodgers said.
“He’s very, very honest in his own appraisal when I sit and speak to him about where we’re at. He’s been a long time as a No 2 here and a very loyal No 2.
“With our situation in the summer, even if we wanted to, there was no one that we could bring in, but I still felt that Danny was deserving of the opportunity because of what we’ve seen in training.
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“I think it’s been a challenging season, in fairness to him. He’s always stood up to that and been very honest with it.
“I think it was a difficult start for him, as the summer was for us and the beginning of the season. There were tough games.
“I think that was a challenge and then as the season wore on and the team started to find stability so did he.
“Then obviously the World Cup was tough, maybe from a confidence perspective (Wayne Hennessey was first choice for Wales), and then coming back it’s probably been a little bit up and down.
“But I felt he deserved the opportunity. The club paid a lot of money for him (£12million from Liverpool), so he’s had 26 games with the team.
It has been difficult for Ward this season to make that transition from a No 2 to the main man, but he could also have done with more protection from those in front of him. It’s worth noting that while Ward’s goals prevented figure is not ideal this season, it is not dissimilar to Ederson at Manchester City.
Lapses from the Brazilian are likely to be overlooked as his team pursues success in three competitions. Ward’s have not been, and that’s a difficult experience for any goalkeeper.
Whoever plays in goal for Leicester in the final months of the season needs to channel their inner Schmeichel. Just a couple of big saves at key moments could be vital in what is shaping up to be one of the most intense relegation battles in Premier League history.
(Top photo by Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images)