"This book is about longtermism: the idea that positively influencing the longterm future is a key moral priority of our time". The author starts with three intriguing metaphors: Humanity as an imprudent teenager whose decisions will have lifetime consequences; History as molten glass -- society might set in a fixed unchangeable state; Trying to make the future better as a risky expedition into uncharted terrain. I give the book 5 stars because it is a well written and thought-provoking account of a neglected important topic. Much of the book is eminently sensible, so my comments are just a few counterpoints to a few of the topics discussed, though I have one substantial criticism at the end.
Start with the axiom "future people count". This seems unobjectionable, but one then confronts questions like "is the world better for having more people leading good lives?" What are the trade-offs between present,near future, and far future costs and benefits? Is a larger population preferable to a smaller population? Chapter 8 discusses such "population ethics" questions via thought experiments. This is fascinating as an intellectual exercise, but it is perhaps not surprising that there are no very satisfactory answers.
Another theme starts with "values are contingent" -- for instance, that in an alternate history, large-scale legal slavery might have continued through the 20th Century. The author speculates that the current era of rapid technological and economic growth exhibits unusual "plasticity", in the sense that actions or their neglect today might lead to a "values lock-in" over the next century or two, so we should attempt to steer in the desired direction today. In particular this is applied to the development of AGIs, though the specific possible consequences described seem unconvincing to me.
Chapter 7 worries about possible future "technological stagnation"", and indeed the author writes later "the risk of technological stagnation alone suffices to make the net longterm effect of having children positive". This seems curious at first sight, but his point is that the world economy might end in an unsustainable state as regards climate change and resource depletion.
The final "What to do" Chapter 10 contains an interesting analysis, along the lines of the "effective altruism" movement that the author has been involved with. Changing personal consumption has little effect, except perhaps for becoming vegetarian. Donating to charities carefully chosen to maximize good, political activism and "spreading good ideas" are recommended. Less familiar is the discussion of career choices -- what will be the overall effect of your 80,000 lifetime hours of work?
On the technical side (my own background is mathematical probability), the use of mathematical expectation (expected significance, expected contingency, expected persistence) in the context of rare events with major consequences is problematical. Especially in the context of trillions of potential future humans, where arguments come perilously close to inane arguments like the Simulation Hypothesis. Similarly, the quoted subjective estimates of probabilities of various catastrophes are very unreliable.
Finally, my only major criticism is that the author does not address the following rather obvious "elephant in the room" thought experiment. Imagine an engineered pandemic, designed to and succeeding in killing 95% of humans unselectively without destroying infrastructure. This would be psychologically be harmful to the survivors, but by the logic of longtermism would surely be A Good Thing, in that the subsequent few generations would be free of most of our current worries about climate change, nuclear war, etc, and have time to work toward the ideal future envisaged in this book. But would anyone really say in public that it would be a good act?
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Reviews with images
Amazingly thoughtful book for people who want to improve the world
This book changed the way I see the world. I've always been thinking about how to make the world better for future generations, and this has been the best book I've found for helping me think clearly and rigorously about this question.Very highly recommend!I added some photos so you can see the quotes on the back cover and get a sense of the length (246 pages without the Appendices)
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Top reviews from other countries
Walter Staiano
Every Human Being should read this book at least once
Reviewed in Italy on January 23, 2023
stonehenge_
It's difficult to make predictions, especially when they are about the future…
Reviewed in Germany on January 9, 2023Amazon Customer
Läasvärd bok med välgrundade resonemang
Reviewed in Sweden on November 9, 2022