Covid in Scotland: Latest figures say cases are increasing

The number of people testing positive for Covid in Scotland rose last week, according to the latest figures.

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data estimated that about one person in 40 had the virus - an increase from one in 50 the previous week.

Public health expert Jillian Evans has warned that the UK could be at the start of a fresh Covid wave driven by new variants of the Omicron strain.

She said there were "early signs" that things were changing.

But national clinical director Prof Jason Leitch said it was "a little early to say" that there was a new wave.

The ONS figures said there were signs of a possible increase in cases among those aged between 30 and 40 in Scotland.

England and Northern Ireland also saw small increases in cases last week, although the virus continues to be less prevalent there than in Scotland.

It is estimated that one in 70 people has the virus in England, compared to one in 65 in Northern Ireland and one in 75 in Wales.

The rise across the UK is believed to have been caused by a jump in infections compatible with the original Omicron variant BA.1, along with the newer variants BA.4 and BA.5.

Omicron BA.1 caused a surge in infections across the UK in December and early January, while BA.4 and BA.5 are newer variants that were recently classified by the UK Health Security Agency as "variants of concern".

Analysis has found both of the newer variants are likely to have a "growth advantage" over other strains.

Speaking to BBC's Scotland's Drivetime programme, Ms Evans - the head of health intelligence at NHS Grampian - said the latest data "definitely looks to me as if it's the early sign of something changing".

She said infection rates in Scotland had been "plateauing" at about one in 45 or one in 50 in Scotland for the past month after a big decline earlier in the year.

Ms Evans added: "What is marked today I think, when we look at the ONS publication, is how it is changing in the rest of the UK and particularly England."

She said experts at the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) now believe that "this may be the start of a new wave starting".

But she said it "may not be be as high as we have seen with the previous Omicron wave".

She added: "It certainly signals a change in Covid infection levels and is something we need to sit up and take notice of."

Ms Evans said the new wave appeared to be driven by "not one or two, but a few new variants that are starting to gather dominance".

She said: "It's the growth that we're very concerned about - the proportion of cases that are the new variant seemed to be really rising very fast.

"That's a worry, because those cases are more transmissible than the previous version of Omicron."

Ms Evans said it was still true that Covid is a very mild illness for many people.

But this is not the case for everyone, with the number of people in hospital with the virus remaining high and an estimated two million people in the UK suffering from long Covid.

Prof Leitch said he did not want to argue with Ms Evans but it was a "little early to say" if there as a new wave.

"I don't think it is encouraging," he said

"I don't think going from one in 50 to one in 40 is good news but there is some mixed news if you look at the data in the round."

He said there were now 600 people in hospital with Covid, well down on earlier levels.

Prof Leitch added that people should make sure they are vaccinated to protect themselves against the disease.

The latest data from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) showed that in the week to 5 June, 20 deaths involving Covid were registered - 26 fewer than the previous week.

It means 14,820 deaths have now been registered in Scotland where the virus was mentioned on the death certificate.