The Ashes 2023: A 2-2 draw would be an extraordinary turnaround for England - Agnew

I have seen almost 400 Tests and I am yet to watch one that does not matter.

Australia may have retained the Ashes last week in Manchester but that does not mean there is not a lot riding on the fifth Test at The Oval, which starts on Thursday.

For Australia, the importance is obvious.

They have not won a series outright in England since 2001 and still talk about losing the final Test here four years ago - a result that meant the 2019 series was drawn 2-2.

That shows how much it matters to Australia.

England should be motivated to stop that but more importantly it is about continuing the good work of the Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum era.

They should be winning this series - or certainly level at 2-2. Their mistakes in the first two Tests have cost them.

But, among all the disappointment and frustration of last week's washout in Manchester, we should not forget how far England have come under Stokes and McCullum.

No-one who was in Hobart 18 months ago, when England suffered their final humiliation in a 4-0 Ashes defeat down under, would have dreamed then they would be this competitive.

The gap between the two teams looked enormous - England utterly broken, with a mindset consumed by negativity.

A 2-2 draw would be an extraordinary turnaround and would reinforce the brilliant work Stokes and McCullum have done in changing the feel around the team.

A 3-1 defeat, meanwhile, would be deflating.

England have a tough winter ahead, with Jonny Bairstow, Joe Root and Mark Wood certain to be among those trying to defend the 50-over World Cup in the autumn before they return to India for a five-Test series after Christmas.

That will be a tough tour.

The surprising list of smaller venues announced on Tuesday - Hyderabad, Vizag, Rajkot, Ranchi and Dharamsala - means there will be a lot of travelling.

Having toured India myself, I know how important team spirit is.

But if England do well in London this week, the players will look forward to that series, be in a good place and, more pressingly, end the series with a scoreline more easily justified than 3-1, given the play we have seen.

England have been much closer to Australia than that but, years in the future when people look back at the results in Wisden, England's missed chances in the first Test, their position of 188-1 at Lord's or the rain in Manchester will not be remembered.

All it will say is another Australia win. England can still dent Australia and make sure they leave the series with something.

We have been here before but it seems certain this will be the last time we see Stuart Broad and James Anderson in an Ashes Test together.

That 37-year-old Broad will finish the series having played all five matches in seven weeks is a triumph for him.

Broad did not think he would get through the last home Ashes series four years ago. He has taken another 133 wickets since then, including 18 in this series. It is an incredible testament to his hunger, fitness and desire.

I am sure Broad will want to carry on but I am not sure what England are going to do longer term with Anderson, who turns 41 on Saturday.

England have named an unchanged team for The Oval, therefore picking Anderson again. I worry about his confidence, having taken only four wickets in the series.

Even a player of his experience, with 689 Test scalps and 182 Tests behind him, will go searching for form and rewards on the back of a tough run.

That said, he has not bowled badly in his last two matches, admittedly having been below his best in Birmingham for the first Test.

His speeds are about the same as they have been but there is not the same zip, not helped by the lack of swing or seam movement and the flat pitches.

This Test could easily have been Anderson's last. Had he announced his retirement, he would have received an incredible send-off - much like the one his mate Alastair Cook received on the same ground in 2018.

But he has said he wants to carry on, external and it must be said there is not a huge queue of English pace bowlers behind him.

I can see why he'd turn around to England and say, 'I'll keep going, thanks'.

He clearly does not feel ready for it to end so takes his chance, putting himself up for selection like everyone else.

The great Australian Don Bradman played his final innings at The Oval in 1948 and was out for a second-ball duck.

For Anderson, a farewell here would have been fabulous but will know the end could easily come in Rajkot, or with non-selection against Sri Lanka next summer.

That is the risk you take as a professional sportsperson. I certainly hope he finds his very best again this week.

Australia have a massive challenge ahead, coming back from the hammering they received in Manchester.

Yes, they escaped with a draw but were totally under the cosh for the first three days and looked defeated - bereft of any ideas.

How they lift themselves will have a big say in how we remember this series.

Jonathan Agnew was speaking to BBC Sport's Matthew Henry