Estimate of Key Aggregates of the Balance of Payments of the Russian Federation

The essentials:

The Bank of Russia published the first estimate of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in March 2024 and revised the estimates for January — February 2024 due to the receipt of additional reporting data as of April 11, 2024.

The current account surplus in March 2024 was $13.4 billion against $5.2 billion in February 2024. Its growth was a result of the significant increase in exports of goods and the decrease in the total negative influence of primary and secondary income.

The current account surplus in January — March 2024 increased to $22.0 billion from $15.4 billion in corresponding period of 2023 due to the reduction of the deficit in the balance on services, primary and secondary income.

Key Aggregates in details in March 2024:

• the trade balance surplus amounted to $16,7 billion, having increased by $9.0 billion compared to the updated indicator of February 2024 due to the significant rise in exports of goods with the sustainable imports volume;
• the deficit in the balance on services amounted to $1.9 billion, which is $1.3 billion higher than the adjusted indicator of February 2024: the key driver was the seasonal increase in number of residents’ trips abroad, recorded in imports of services under the Travel item;
• the total deficit in primary and secondary income totaled $1.4 billion against $1.8 billion a month earlier primarily due to the increased accruals in favor of residents;
• external liabilities declined by $0.2 billion (by $1.1 billion in February 2024) with the multidirectional debt dynamics in different institutional sectors;
• foreign assets (excluding reserve assets) increased by $15.5 billion against $4.2 billion a month earlier: it primarily reflects lags in receipts of payments for increased exports in March;
• reserve assets decreased by $4.0 billion (by $2.0 billion in February 2024) mainly as a result of transactions with funds of the National Wealth Fund, as well as a temporary increase in swap transactions limits at the end of the month to smooth the volatility of domestic money market rates for foreign currency.

Key Aggregates in Q1 2024:

• the trade balance surplus grew to $31.1 billion against $30.4 billion in Q1 2023 with more significant drop in imports compared to exports. The estimate in February 2024 was lowered for exports of goods, taking into account the received reporting data;
• the deficit in the balance on services decreased to $4.7 billion against $7.6 billion a year earlier due to both the growth in exports of services and the decline in imports of services;
• the total deficit in primary and secondary income amounted to $4.4 billion ($7.4 billion a year earlier) affected by the decrease in the amount of dividends accrued in favor of non-residents as well as paid personal transfers;
• the reduction in external liabilities slowed to $3.7 billion ($11.7 billion in Q1 2023), among other things, due to the reduction of the volume of non-resident withdrawals from the Russian companies capital;
• foreign assets (excluding reserve assets) increased by $22.6 billion (by $6.3 billion a year earlier), among other things, due to the lags in settlements for foreign economic activity;
• international reserves declined by $6.9 billion mainly as a consequence of transactions with the funds of the National Wealth Fund.

Current account components in 2017–2024, billions of US dollars