Supporting and reporting global climate progress
COP28: Tracking the Energy Outcomes
Nearly 200 countries made major collective pledges on energy at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai with the aim of keeping within reach the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. For the first time, governments recognised that to achieve this target, energy-related emissions need to reach net zero by 2050, and they set key goals to help meet this objective – including tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling global energy efficiency improvements by 2030, accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels, and deploying emerging technologies, such as low-emissions hydrogen and carbon capture.
The International Energy Agency (IEA), in collaboration with UN Climate Change, is closely tracking progress towards the energy objectives established at COP28. This forms part of our broader work, at the request of governments, to support the full and timely implementation of the energy promises made in Dubai by identifying pathways forwards and providing policy makers with advice on accelerating national and secure clean energy transitions.
The sections below follow the energy targets laid out in Paragraph 28 of the COP28 Global Stocktake outcome (which can be found in full here). They show where the world currently stands in relation to these objectives, as well as where it would need to be in 2030 to meet them – and be on a pathway to the COP28 target of net zero energy sector emissions by mid-century. This assessment is based on the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, as well as the latest data and analysis.
This page will be updated regularly as more data becomes available. The IEA will also continuously evaluate, in consultation with UN Climate Change and other relevant partners, the most appropriate and valuable metrics for tracking the COP28 energy outcomes.
Detailed tracking of sector-by-sector and technology-by-technology progress against the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario is also available here, while the IEA’s data explorer analysing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement for more than 190 countries, as well the implied emissions for the energy sector, can be found here.
To view charts with the latest tracking data, click the grey arrows on the righthand side of the page.
Global tracking indicators
In 2023, the world’s capacity to generate electricity from renewables increased faster than at any time in the past three decades. On such a trajectory, there is a real chance of achieving the goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 that governments set at COP28. Currently, renewable power capacity is on track to increase by about two-and-a-half times from 2022 levels by the end of the decade – signalling that the world still needs to accelerate renewables deployment to reach the tripling objective.
Learn more in our Renewables 2023 report – and check out our new Renewable Energy Progress Tracker, which allows users to explore historical data and projections at the regional and country level, including progress towards the tripling goal.
Global renewable energy capacity and COP28 pathway, 2030
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Triple renewable power capacity globally by 2030
Governments agreed at COP28 to double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. According to the IEA’s net zero pathway, annual progress needs to double from a baseline of 2% per year to an average of more than 4% per year between now and 2030. In 2023, global energy efficiency improved by an estimated 1.1%, according to the latest IEA data – well below the target.
Learn more in our Energy Efficiency 2023 report and explore our Energy Efficiency Policy Toolkit for the latest guidance for governments on effective policies and best practices. In May 2024, the IEA will host its 9th annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency in Nairobi, Kenya, to drive further progress, complementing our Energy Efficiency Training Weeks.
Improvement in global energy efficiency and COP28 pathway, 2030
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Double the global rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030
Electricity generated worldwide from coal – the largest single source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activity – reached an all-time high in 2023. But a turning point could arrive soon: under today’s policy settings, coal demand is projected to peak before the end of this decade and decline gradually. However, to meet global climate goals, a much faster decrease is necessary to be on track for 1.5 °C.
Learn more in our new report, Accelerating Just Transitions for the Coal Sector, which offers pragmatic strategies for policy makers to transition away from unabated coal power while maintaining energy security and affordability, and protecting local communities with strong ties to coal production and use. It provides an update to our 2022 special report, Coal in Net Zero Transitions.
Global electricity generation from coal and COP28 pathway, 2030
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Accelerate efforts to phase down unabated coal power
To keep the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C within reach, the COP28 outcome recognised that the energy sector needs to reach net zero emissions by 2050, utilising zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century.
Strong growth in clean energy has limited annual increases in energy-related CO2 emissions in recent years. However, these emissions still rose to a record high in 2023. In the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 Scenario, emissions fall by 35% from 2022 levels by 2030.
Our recent report, CO2 Emissions in 2023, provides an update on recent trends in energy-related emissions, while the latest edition of the IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap details how all sectors of the global energy system can contribute to the goal of reaching net zero emissions by mid-century.
Global energy sector CO2 emissions and COP28 pathway, 2030
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Accelerate efforts globally towards net zero emission energy systems well before or by around mid-century
COP28 marked the first time that nearly 200 countries agreed on the need to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems – with action accelerating in this critical decade to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, in keeping with the science.
Due to the rapid growth of clean energy, peaks in demand for oil, natural gas and coal are now visible by 2030 under today’s policy settings. Yet on a pathway to net zero by 2050, fossil fuel demand would need to decline by more than a quarter from 2022 levels by the end of the decade, enabled by rapid growth in clean energy – much faster than is currently projected under today’s policy settings.
Our recent special report, The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions, lays out near-term actions the sector can take to help the world achieve its climate ambitions.
Global fossil fuel demand and COP28 pathway, 2030
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Transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems…
The transition away from fossil fuels must be just, orderly and equitable, as stipulated by the COP28 agreement. There are many metrics that can be used to assess whether transitions are just, orderly and equitable. Though none capture the entire picture, we provide here a few important data points worth monitoring.
Currently, clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies is lacklustre outside of China, indicating that these economies are missing out on clean energy opportunities. Clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies including China needs to triple from 2022 levels by 2030 on a pathway to net zero by 2050.
The IEA’s Clean Energy Transitions Programme focuses on accelerating clean energy transitions in major emerging economies. More details on what is needed from the private sector can be found in the report Scaling Up Private Finance for Clean Energy in Emerging and Developing Economies developed with the International Finance Corporation. The report Reducing the Cost of Capital includes recommendations for improving access to financing in emerging economies.
People around the world will also need access to reliable and affordable energy supplies as the transition away from fossil fuels advances. To achieve this, it is important to sequence the scaling up of investment in clean energy and the decline in investment in fossil fuel supplies in order to avoid damaging price spikes or stranded assets. Even in a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050, some investment in existing oil and gas infrastructure remains necessary.
Learn more in our World Energy Investment 2023 report, which looks at the energy investment landscape, and our recent World Energy Outlook 2023. The IEA will publish a special report this year on strategies for ensuring fair and affordable clean energy transitions.
Additionally, in the IEA’s pathway to net zero emissions by 2050, the world achieves universal energy access by 2030, in line with UN Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). More than a billion people gained access to electricity between 2010 and 2021. However, the pace of improvements has slowed in recent years – and in 2022, access declined slightly.
The world also remains off track to achieve universal access to clean cooking by 2030. More than 2 billion people still using polluting fuels and technologies for cooking, with serious negative consequences for health, economic development, gender equity and the climate.
Explore the latest progress report on SDG 7, and learn more about delivering universal clean cooking access while meeting net zero targets in A Vision for Clean Cooking Access for All. The Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa, which the IEA and partners are holding in Paris this spring, aims to accelerate progress.
It is crucial to maximise the number of high-quality jobs linked to the clean energy economy. Clean energy employment now makes up over half of all energy jobs, having overtaken the number of roles tied to fossil fuels in 2021. On a pathway to net zero by 2050, the global energy sector employs 25% more workers in 2030 than it does currently – though jobs may not always be in the same location or require the same skills. This makes it essential to substantially expand support for job training and capacity building in order to ensure that energy transitions benefit as many people as possible.
The latest data on energy sector employment can be found in our World Energy Employment 2023 report. For an online repository of best practice case studies on people-centred and inclusive clean energy programmes and policies, visit our recently-launched Global Observatory on People-Centred Clean Energy Transitions.
The COP28 agreement notes that the full range of zero- and low-emissions technologies is needed to reach net zero emissions by mid-century – including renewables; nuclear; abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), particularly in sectors where emissions are hard to abate; and low-emissions hydrogen.
Low-emissions hydrogen and CCUS capacity (including for direct air capture) need to rise strongly in the IEA's pathway to net zero by 2050. Nuclear power is a more mature technology, though capacity also needs to increase strongly by 2030 to reach net zero emissions by mid-century.
Explore the IEA’s handbook on building commercial markets for CCUS and find current projects in our CCUS database. The latest analysis on hydrogen can be found in the annual Global Hydrogen Review, while a complementary database tracks active projects and infrastructure development. And read our 2022 report Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions, which explores the role of nuclear power in meeting global energy and climate goals.
Global CO2 emissions captured and COP28 pathway, 2030
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Accelerate zero- and low-emissions technologies
Global low-emissions hydrogen production and COP28 pathway, 2030
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Accelerate zero- and low-emissions technologies
Global nuclear power capacity and COP28 pathway, 2030
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Accelerate zero- and low-emissions technologies
The COP28 agreement calls for substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally and emphasises the need to cut methane emissions this decade in particular. According to IEA analysis, methane emissions from fossil fuel operations need to decline by 75% from 2022 levels by 2030 on a pathway to limiting warming to 1.5 °C.
The production and use of fossil fuels resulted in close to 120 million tonnes of methane emissions in 2023, equivalent to around 3.4 billion tonnes of CO2. That is near the record high set in 2019. However, there are signs of progress, with transparency on emissions improving and policy action gaining momentum.
Learn more in our Global Methane Tracker 2024 report, and explore key strategies to cut methane emissions from oil and gas operations. We’ve also published a regulatory roadmap and toolkit to reduce methane leaks in the oil and gas sector.
Global methane emissions from fossil fuels and COP28 pathway, 2030
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Substantially reduce methane emissions by 2030
Governments agreed at COP28 to accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport, including through the development of infrastructure and the rapid deployment of zero- and low-emissions vehicles.
While there are multiple technical solutions to reduce emissions from road transport, electrification is a key one. Demand for electric cars reached a new record in 2023, accounting for nearly one in five new cars sold globally. Meanwhile, nearly one in ten two- and three-wheelers globally is now electric.
If the rate of growth in electric cars is sustained, it would be more than enough to align with the IEA’s net zero pathway – though 2023 demand was notably concentrated in a handful of major markets and must be spread more broadly around the world.
Find out more in the IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2024.
The COP28 agreement calls for phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions as soon as possible.
At the height of the global energy crisis in 2022, fossil fuel subsidies soared. Those for natural gas and electricity consumption more than doubled compared with 2021, while oil subsidies rose by around 85%. The total value of subsidies declined in 2023 as some government provisions expired, while many others are tied directly to energy prices, which pulled back from record highs in many parts of the world.
Explore the IEA’s Fossil Fuel Subsidies Database for more information on consumption subsidies in select countries through 2022.
Global fossil fuel consumption subsidies, 2015-2023
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Phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
Next steps
Following the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake process at COP28, countries are beginning to develop the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, under the Paris Agreement. These NDCs will be crucial in determining the pace at which global greenhouse gas emissions decline over the next decade.
IEA analysis finds that the most recent NDCs would cut 5 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 emissions off previous targets. However, ambition remains insufficient to align with countries’ own net zero pledges or a global 1.5 °C pathway. That means bolder commitments are essential – as are detailed plans on how to realistically deliver on them. The IEA is working with UN Climate Change and sharing data, analysis and policy advice with governments to inform this process.
Our Climate Pledges Explorer tracks existing NDCs and net zero targets for each country. The interactive database, which lays out what each country’s NDC implies for energy sector emissions, will be updated regularly.
The IEA collaborates closely with governments around the world. Our Agency collects and shares key energy and climate data, while developing analysis and delivering policy advice to help countries achieve the energy and climate goals they have set. This work also involves publishing country- and region-specific reports and roadmaps; convening experts and leaders to facilitate the exchange of ideas and insights; and building new tools to present the latest data to decision-makers.
Some recent examples of collaboration include special reports such as our Latin America Energy Outlook and Financing Clean Energy in Africa; our Energy Sector Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions in Indonesia; and our policy toolkit for implementing India’s Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) initiative.
Much of our work to turn targets into actions is made possible by our Clean Energy Transitions Programme, the IEA’s flagship initiative to accelerate secure and people-centred progress towards a global energy system with net zero emissions, with a focus on major emerging and developing economies.
In February, we convened a high-level roundtable at our headquarters to discuss the actions needed to achieve the key energy targets agreed at COP28. In the months ahead, we will continue our series of High-Level Dialogues, which we launched last year in partnership with the COP28 Presidency of the United Arab Emirates. The upcoming Dialogues, hosted in conjunction with the COP29 Presidency of Azerbaijan, will provide an important venue for countries to share experiences and expertise as they navigate the complexities of developing new NDCs and transition plans and establish priorities ahead of COP29 in November.
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