The latest evidence confirms that Famine is imminent in the northern governorates of the Gaza Strip and projected to occur anytime between mid-March and May 2024.

The IPC acute food insecurity analysis conducted in December 2023 warned of a risk that Famine may occur by the end of May 2024 if an immediate cessation of hostilities and sustained access for the provision of essential supplies and services to the population did not take place.  Since then, the conditions necessary to prevent Famine have not been met.

According to the most likely scenario, both North Gaza and Gaza Governorates are classified in IPC Phase 5 (Famine) with reasonable evidence, with 70 percent (around 210,000 people) of the population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). Continued conflict and the near-complete lack of access to the northern governorates for humanitarian organizations and commercial trucks will likely compound heightened vulnerabilities and extremely limited food availability, access, and utilization, as well as access to healthcare, water, and sanitation.

The southern governorates of Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis, and the Governorate of Rafah, are classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). However, in a worst-case scenario, these governorates face a risk of Famine through July 2024.

The entire population in the Gaza Strip (2.23 million) is facing high levels of acute food insecurity. This includes half of the population in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), an increase of 530,000 people (92 percent) from the previous analysis.

During the projection period (mid-March to mid-July 2024), in the most likely scenario and under the assumption of an escalation of the conflict including a ground offensive in Rafah, half of the population of the Gaza Strip (1.11 million people) is expected to face catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5), the most severe level in the IPC Acute Food Insecurity scale.

Between the current and the projection period, around 400,000 more people are expected to slide into IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). The rest of the population faces Emergency (IPC Phase 4) (854,000 people, 38 percent of the population) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) (265,000 people, 12 percent of the population).

The devastation brought about by the hostilities is indescribable. Widespread, intense, and relentless conflict has forced approximately 1.9 million people to flee, constituting 85 percent of the population in the Gaza Strip, with over 31,000 fatalities and 73,000 injuries reported.

The escalation of hostilities has caused widespread damage to assets and infrastructure indispensable to survival. About 50 percent of buildings - and more than 70 percent in the northern governorates - have been damaged or destroyed.

Extremely limited humanitarian access to and within the Gaza Strip continues to impede the safe and equitable delivery of life-saving multi-sector humanitarian assistance. This includes severe limitations to the supply of goods as well as basic services.

The IPC Famine Review Committee (FRC) was activated for a second time to review analysis conducted by a multi-agency, multi-sectoral analysis team to determine the current and projected food security situation in the Gaza Strip. The first analysis, conducted in December 2023, determined there was a risk of Famine within the projection period of December 2023 to May 2024, and that the risk would increase for each day that the intense conflict and restricted humanitarian access persisted or worsened. The role of the FRC is to assess the plausibility of IPC analyses for classifications in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe/Famine).

Famine can be halted—both in the immediate term and it requires urgent and proactive measures from parties to the conflict and the international community. They must immediately curb the rapidly escalating hunger crisis in the Gaza Strip, garner political support to put an end to the hostilities, mobilize necessary resources and ensure the safe delivery of humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza.

Overall recommendations

• Restore humanitarian access to the entire Gaza Strip.
• Stop the fast-paced deterioration of the food security, health and nutrition situation leading to excess mortality through:
  • The restoration of health, nutrition, and WASH services and the protection of civilian
  • The provision of safe, nutritious, and sufficient food to all the population in need.
• The sustained supply of sufficient aid commodities, including but not limited to food, medicines, specialist nutrition products, fuel, and other necessities should be allowed to enter and move throughout the entire Gaza Strip by road. Traffic of commercial goods should also be fully resumed to meet the volume of commodities required.

Programmatic recommendations

• Deliver acute malnutrition treatment services, specifically CMAM and IYCF-E services throughout the Gaza Strip, with a particular emphasis on opening stabilization centres in the north.
• Supply ready-to-use formula for non-breastfed infants and ensure sufficient access to safe drinking water if preparation is required.
• Provide complimentary foods and micronutrient supplements for young children, as well as pregnant and lactating women, the chronically ill, and the elderly.
• Restore the functioning of market infrastructures and bakeries combined with cash-based interventions where feasible.
• Rehabilitate food production systems as soon as possible, including horticulture, livestock, and fishing.