European Council on Foreign Relations

Since Hamas’s attacks sparked the war in Gaza on 7 October 2023, a dangerous cycle of escalation has played out across the Middle East. This paper elaborates on the complexity of the evolving Iraqi-Iranian relationship and the consequences of these dynamics amid the regional instability provoked by the war in Gaza. New policy brief by Hamzeh Hadad. https://lnkd.in/esJWWpXC

Belarusian leader, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, has created a new and constitutionally powerful assembly that could secure him a smooth transition of power to his loyalists after his rule. But for now, he will control it himself, writes Pavel Slunkin. https://lnkd.in/dxMkwjwX

Finally passed into law, the UK’s bill to process migrants in Rwanda has been a political disaster. European governments should remember that not only does such a policy not work to deter migration, it will politically damage any party that adopts it, write Tarek Megerisi and Mireia Faro Sarrats. #RwandaBill #migration #UK https://lnkd.in/dfKrA_4r

🎧New podcast! How can we understand current-day Russia against the background of history? Is the monopolisation of power and lack of checks and balances on a level unique to #Russia? Was Russia’s foreign policy trajectory predestined and if not, what were the crucial turning points that brought it to where it is today? And is Russian foreign policy changing irreversibly? To look at the history of Russia’s foreign policy and what its future might be, our host Kadri Liik is joined by ECFR visiting fellow Kirill Shamiev and Sergey Radchenko, Wilson E. Schmidt distinguished professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). https://lnkd.in/duCFecrY

African and European decision-makers can achieve mutual benefit on critical raw materials – but the EU should be clearer about which parts of the value chain it wishes to invest in. Read our new policy brief by Theo Acheampong. https://lnkd.in/edZ4nnXZ

In this new policy brief, which I authored as a Visiting Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, I unpack how Africa and Europe can become green industry partners of choice in the context of the geopolitics of critical minerals and the energy transition. Here are some highlights: ✅ The EU should take a clearer stance on which aspects of the critical raw materials value chain it wants to participate in within Africa – whether upstream, midstream, or downstream processing. ✅ Decision-makers in Europe can best position themselves by providing financing instruments to de-risk and catalyse the private sector investments that will unlock the local production and value addition prioritised by African policymakers. ✅ Europeans should also pursue a regional approach by connecting individual projects to bigger systems, as exemplified by the Lobito corridor in the DRC, Zambia, and Angola. ✅ The EU can also distinguish itself as a partner by pushing for the stricter application of environmental, social, and governance principles, in contrast to the lower standards generally delivered by geopolitical rivals. As part of this, the bloc should work with its partners on China joining the Minerals Security Partnership; it should also promote African membership of the partnership. Access the full paper at https://lnkd.in/eMzxtqCa Thanks to my colleagues at ECFR for their helpful comments and great discussions on this paper

In their campaigns for the European parliament election, Germany’s pro-European parties must unite to effectively mobilise voters against the threat of the far-right party, Alternative for Germany, write Rafael Loss and Angela Mehrer. #EPElections https://lnkd.in/d_FV_KSZ

🎧New podcast! In September 2024, the United Nation’s Summit of the Future is set to take place – a crucial moment to mend “eroded trust” between peoples, countries, and generations. Europe’s role on the world stage is constantly adapting to the fluidity of the global geopolitical space. In this final episode of Europe Listens, ECFR’s Rafael Loss and Dr. Jana Puglierin welcome Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group and Arancha Gonzalez Laya, former Spanish foreign minister and current dean of the Science Po Paris School of International Affairs. They revisit previous discussions of the Europe Listens series and, looking ahead, ask how the European Union can continue playing a meaningful role on the global stage. Stiftung Mercator GmbH https://lnkd.in/div4MirQ

Facing its sixth election in three years, Bulgaria’s political instability risks marginalising Sofia’s role within the EU. To avoid this, the campaigns of pro-European politicians in the country must not lose sight of Bulgaria’s international position, writes Maria Simeonova. https://lnkd.in/dBsR28yC

The IMEC project could help bridge the divides of this fragmenting world, bringing together actors that are not fully aligned – even regarding the aims of the project in question. Read Alberto Rizzi's new policy brief. https://lnkd.in/djZwMAG4