Elections Could Reshape U.S.-Iran Dynamic

Once allies, Iran and the United States have navigated a fraught relationship for decades. The 1979 Iranian revolution marked a significant U-turn; student protesters seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, holding more than 50 Americans hostage for 444 days. Today, the old embassy building is home to a museum dubbed the Den of Espionage that details Iranian grievances with the United States. Visitors are greeted with a mural of a skull-faced Statue of Liberty and the words “Down with USA.”

The anti-American attitude reflected in the museum stems from history: The United States played a role in ousting the Iranian prime minister in 1953, paving the way for a government led by the shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, remembered for both his pro-American foreign policy and his repressive regime. Pahlavi, in turn, was overthrown in 1979. Since the Iranian revolution, strict international sanctions have largely cut the country off from international markets and deepened the rift.

Tehran and Washington have recently drifted even further apart. Iran’s support for Russia amid its war in Ukraine has increased tensions and led to broader Western sanctions. In response, Iran has pivoted toward non-Western alliances offering economic and diplomatic cooperation. Tensions have also risen since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. Iran has accused Israel of committing “genocide in Gaza” with the support of the United States, while Tehran backs Hamas and Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Iran will hold an unexpected presidential election on Friday after the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. Meanwhile, the United States faces an uncertain future as President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare to face off in November. Progress in furthering U.S.-Iran ties stagnated under Biden, who deprioritized Iran, and Raisi, who refrained from expending political capital on the issue. Experts agree that there is little incentive for Tehran to engage more closely with Washington, but the outcome of the countries’ elections could reshape this dynamic.

Since 1979, there have been significant moments of cooperation between Iran and the United States, from Iran’s logistical support for the early U.S. campaign against the Taliban in Afghanistan to a successful prisoner exchange last year that set up the eventual release of $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue. And earlier this year, the United States reportedly warned Iran about an imminent Islamic State attack that ultimately killed 84 people. (Iranian officials deny any such contact before the attack.)

Iran has also been let down by the United States—including when Trump pulled out of the two nations’ long-negotiated nuclear deal in 2018, just three years after it was signed, imposing new sanctions. “The U.S. has put itself in a position where it no longer is an attractive candidate for the Iranians,” said Trita Parsi, the co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “Iran is not willing to engage because it is not convinced the U.S. is capable of offering sustained sanction relief. But at the same time, closing the door on engagement is very dangerous.”

The countries’ fluctuating tensions often hinge on their respective leadership, but mutual suspicion is deep-seated within both the Iranian and U.S. governments. Tehran often perceives Washington as seeking its downfall—a fear that is not too far-fetched, given that its neighbors Afghanistan and Iraq were subjected to U.S.-imposed regime change in the 2000s.

“It doesn’t matter who sits in the White House—that’s what you’ll often hear from Iranian policymakers,” said Azadeh Zamirirad, the deputy head of research for Africa and Middle East at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. “The fear that at the end of the day, any U.S. president would be after a regime change in Iran is shared across the political spectrum, not only among hard-liners.”

A mural and room at the former U.S. embassy in Tehran on May 25. Stefanie Glinski photos for Foreign Policy

Iran was a top priority for former U.S. President Barack Obama. Under his leadership, the United States signed the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, with then-Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate. The agreement detailed plans that would prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon; in return, the United States would partially release the country from debilitating sanctions. Trump’s surprise decision to withdraw from the agreement in 2018 prompted Iran to advance its nuclear capabilities once more.

After Biden was elected, more than 150 Democratic members of Congress called on him to reenter the deal. He did not, nor did he spend political capital to seek closer ties with Tehran. “When it comes to the upcoming elections in the U.S., neither presidential candidate is an attractive option for Iran. Biden has been bending over backward for Israel, with no indication of this changing. And while Trump might even make some sort of a deal, he’s unpredictable and perceived as unmanageable,” Parsi said.

In Iran, 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is working to bolster the political system with loyalists to prevent transitional power struggles or a power vacuum in the event of his death. Raisi was widely regarded as one of Khamenei’s potential successors. Now, there is little time to groom an alternative. Many Iranians think that the country is likely to see another hard-line president who is close to Khamenei; there is just one reformist candidate among the six approved to compete in this week’s election. Voter turnout for national elections has dwindled in recent years.

Regardless of who replaces Raisi, no Iranian political figure seems willing to take the political risk of rapprochement with the United States. “You don’t currently have a politician like Rouhani, who was willing to invest in it,” Parsi said, explaining that Rouhani’s policies paid off at first, proving his opponents wrong. Tehran and Washington signed a deal, but then the problems began: Implementation was difficult, then Trump withdrew, and Biden failed to return to the deal. “Today, Iranian politicians don’t want to spend much capital on U.S. relations,” Parsi added.

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Instead, Iran’s leaders have increasingly focused on building ties with Russia and China. Iran’s bilateral trade with China and Russia is growing; its crude oil trade with China now generates $150 million per day in revenue. Russia and Iran have also become close trade partners and military allies. On Tehran’s streets and in its coffee shops, one now finds more Chinese and Russian visitors and fewer Europeans than in the past.

Until Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Iran was the world’s most sanctioned country. Western sanctions have severely affected Iran’s economy but have not brought about its collapse, in part due to cooperation with Russia and China. The International Monetary Fund put the country’s economic growth at 5.4 percent last year; still, ordinary Iranians are suffering from the country’s isolation, with protests occasionally erupting due to economic hardship. Iranians want sanctions relief.

This year, Iran joined the BRICS grouping (originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) along with four other new members, taking a further step toward overcoming the impact of U.S. sanctions and international isolation. This could indeed mitigate some economic hardship, but it also poses a potential threat for the United States.

“The risk of a Russia-Iran-China revisionist axis challenging the security and sovereignty of the U.S. network of allies and partners is one of the most pressing and urgent security priorities of this century,” said Dana Stroul, the director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Still, amid the ongoing tensions, hesitant dialogue persists between the United States and Iran. It is tactically and strategically important for both sides to make sure there that are no unnecessary escalations. On June 3, acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri—who replaced Hossein Amir-Abdollahian after the latter died in the helicopter crash alongside Raisi—spoke at a press conference in Beirut, confirming that the United States and Iran were engaged in talks in Oman.

“We have always continued our negotiations. They have never stopped,” Bagheri said.