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Turkey’s Pivotal Election

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Turkey is nearing its most dramatic election in decades. Almost a century after the establishment of the republic and following 20 years of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule, Ankara seems like it’s at a pivotal moment. It has soaring inflation; an earthquake that claimed the lives of more than 50 thousand people; and a range of other problems that Erdogan and rival politicians all claim that they alone can fix.

The majority of Turkey’s opposition has rallied behind Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party. Kilicdaroglu, who’s sometimes referred to as Turkey’s Mahatma Gandhi, has differentiated himself from Erdogan by framing himself as a modest leader. His campaign has promised to strengthen the country’s democracy, fix its economic crisis, and battle corruption.

Could Erdogan actually lose? And if he does, will there be a peaceful transition of power?

FP’s Ravi Agrawal spoke with two experts to understand what lies ahead. Gonul Tol is the founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program and author of Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria, and Steven A. Cook is an FP columnist and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Subscribers can watch the full video discussion here or read a lightly edited and condensed transcript, exclusive to FP Insiders.

Gonul Tol

Founding Director, Turkey Program, Middle East Institute

Gonul Tol is the founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program and author of Erdogan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria.

Steven A. Cook

Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, Council on Foreign Relations

Steven A. Cook is a columnist at Foreign Policy and the Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. His latest book is False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East.

Host

Ravi Agrawal

Editor in chief

Ravi Agrawal is the editor in chief of Foreign Policy, the host of FP Live, and a regular world affairs analyst on TV and radio. Before joining FP in 2018, Agrawal worked at CNN for more than a decade in full-time roles spanning three continents, including as the network’s New Delhi bureau chief and correspondent. He has shared a Peabody Award and three Emmy nominations for his work as a TV producer, and his writing for FP was part of a series nominated for a 2020 National Magazine Award for columns and commentary. Agrawal is the author of India Connected: How the Smartphone Is Transforming the World’s Largest Democracy. He is a graduate of Harvard University. 

Related

Is this the End of Turkey’s Erdogan?

How to understand one of the most important elections of 2023.

Q&A | Ravi Agrawal

What Happens When a Turkish President Loses an Election? No One Knows.

Erdogan has few role models for how to peacefully concede power.

Analysis | Reuben Silverman

Turkey’s Opposition Can’t Win Without the Working Class

Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s abandonment of the left and his embrace of allies’ neoliberal economics could cost him the election.

Argument | Halil Karaveli

What if Kemal Kilicdaroglu Wins Turkey’s Election?

It seems that only an act of God could dislodge President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Maybe the Feb. 6 earthquake was just that.

Analysis | Steven A. Cook

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