Are you a 65-year-old Leaver who backed Boris? You could be the last reliable Tory voter

If you’re a middle-age man based in England, there’s a pretty good chance you’ve seen an advert on social media this week. 

It’s an old interview of Sir Keir Starmer, confirming to the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire that, if elected, he would not “stop the boats”. 

You were not randomly targeted. This advert, paid for by the Conservatives, is key to the Tories’ campaign: Sir Keir doesn’t have a plan and you are in the few groups – bar the elderly – that they still think they can convince.

Away from the television studios and campaign studios, this year’s election is being fought online. Both Labour and the Conservatives are dropping new adverts on Facebook, Instagram and Google every day.

One of these adverts, costing £35,000, addresses the Tories’ main policy: limiting immigration. 

“OPEN BORDERS VS CONTROLLED BORDERS,” the advert shouts. “It’s Labour vs Conservatives. The choice is yours.”

Men aged 45-64 accounted for 41 per cent of its audience. In fact, more than half of Conservative adverts across Meta are targeted at this very narrow group, who make up just 15 per cent of the electorate. 

This is in stark contrast to the Liberal Democrats and Labour, whose adverts are split far more evenly across the population.

The reasoning for this targeting is clear. The Conservatives know that they are entering this election on the back foot – and that their pool of supporters has diminished. 

Back in 2019, under Boris Johnson, the Conservatives had ample support across the electorate. They won in every age group from 40-year-olds up, a key crop of voters once turnout is considered. Men in their middle age, 50-64, voted for the Conservatives at a rate of 51 per cent, compared with just 25 per cent for Labour. This success was repeated across all classes, particularly the working class, and English regions.

Today, they are at least 20 points behind in the polls. Constituency-level polling suggests it is likely that their collapse will be similar to 1997, if not worse.

And that cross-national support that gave them their largest majority since the 1980s has evaporated. Labour now beats them across every demographic, according to YouGov. 

Just three groups remain on their side: the over-65s, Brexit voters and those who backed the Conservatives in 2019. 

Geographically, the Conservatives are set to have a majority in just one area: the South. But even this is by a narrow margin, according to YouGov’s latest constituency-level polling, with Conservatives expected to secure 37 seats to Labour’s 36.

If Reform were to snag Clacton, where Nigel Farage is vying to be the MP, there would be no part of the country where the Conservatives were the largest party outright.

Targeting middle-aged voters is the Conservatives on the offensive. At the start of the election, when the ad blitz began, they were 15 points behind Labour with the 50-64 group; half their gap across all groups. 

The messaging of their adverts matched this desire. It heavily rests on immigration, which over-50s are twice as likely to view as a top-three issue. Sir Keir’s spending plans have also featured prominently, playing into the fact that the economy is this group’s highest concern. 

Conservative policy announcements such as the introduction of national service and pledging that the state pension would never be taxed have favoured – and are viewed more favourably among – older groups. 

Comparatively little appears to have been offered so far to those aged 25-49. The Conservatives are 36 points behind Labour among this group, compared with just 13 points in 2019.

Now, the Conservatives’ plan to retain or win back as many older voters as possible appears under threat as a result of Nigel Farage’s comeback as leader of Reform UK.

According to a Redfield & Wilton poll, Reform UK has already overtaken the Tories among over-55s. Its leader is viewed far more favourably than Rishi Sunak. 

Despite the Tories’ near-£500,000 ad spend, the party is drastically falling behind Reform in the battle for online engagement.

Since the launch of the campaign, Reform’s likes and shares on social media have climbed and now outrank those of the Tories. Reform’s posts often exhibit a sense of humour. After a milkshake was thrown at Farage, Reform posted a video of the former Ukip leader on TikTok beaming, holding a shake and saying: “My milkshake brings all the people to rally.” That video had more than 8,000 likes.  

But in general, Reform’s online posts stick to the party’s core messaging on immigration and the state of the economy – the two areas on which the Conservative campaign is focused.

In turn, nearly a fifth of the Conservatives’ Meta ads state: “A vote for Reform = a vote for Keir Starmer.” 

But among middle-aged adults, Reform is just one of their competitors.

Almost 80 per cent of ads are aimed at calling out either the Labour Party or Sir Keir for not having a plan. In fact, the Tories’ most expensive ad, costing between £35,000 and 40,000, is a poster of a red piggy bank with the text: “If you think Labour will win, start saving…”

On Friday, the Conservatives suspended their current series of adverts altogether – perhaps planning to focus their resources on the less digitally engaged over-65s instead. 

With this group, the party is 12 points ahead of Labour (down from 49 points in 2019). It might not be long, however, until Reform catches up. The latest YouGov poll had it just six points behind the Tories.