Women's Super League title run-in: Will Chelsea or Manchester City come out on top?
Last updated on .From the section Women's Football
The Women's Super League title race is hotting up with only a handful of games remaining.
It's advantage Manchester City after the latest round of fixtures as Gareth Taylor's side beat West Ham 5-0 to go three points clear of Chelsea at the summit having played a game more.
With Chelsea in Champions League semi-final action again next weekend and City playing bottom side Bristol City, the team from Manchester can be six points clear by the time their rivals play their next WSL game against Liverpool on 1 May.
"At the end of the day we play the game that is in front of us and that is Bristol City," Taylor told BBC Sport when asked about the advantage his side can gain.
"Whatever happens, happens. They still have the games to play, it's not like they are going to be taken away from them so it is what it is. We just need to do what we need to do, that's all."
Chelsea are seeking a fifth successive league title in boss Hayes' final season in charge, while City are looking to win the WSL for the first time since 2016.
Third-placed Arsenal are still just about in contention, but have it all to do, sitting three points behind points behind Chelsea and six behind City. Opta's 'supercomputer' has already ruled out the Gunners, giving them a 0% chance of winning the title.
But how are things shaping up for the remaining games? Who has the tougher run-in? And who does Opta predict will win the title?
Current table
Women's Super League as of 17 April | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Played | Points | GD | Form (past 5 games) |
1. Man City | 19 | 49 | +42 | WWWWW |
2. Chelsea | 18 | 46 | +39 | LWWWW |
3. Arsenal | 19 | 43 | +27 | WLWWW |
City overturned an early-season blip to win their past 13 WSL games, including a 1-0 success at Chelsea in February, but Chelsea's recovery since then to win five in a row has kept them in contention.
If goal difference is level at the end of the season, the title outcome will be decided on goals scored - and City lead Chelsea 54-53 on that metric.
If teams are level on both goal difference and goals scored, the next deciding factor is the number of league wins, followed by head-to-head record against their title rivals. City would edge a head-to-head against Chelsea, having won away and drawn at home.
What are the remaining fixtures?
Chelsea | Manchester City | |
---|---|---|
April | Liverpool (A) | Bristol City (A) |
May | Bristol City (H) | Arsenal (H) |
Tottenham (A) | ||
Man Utd (A) | Aston Villa (A) |
Taylor's side still have to play third-placed Arsenal at home, while Chelsea face two trips to top-five sides - Liverpool and Manchester United.
What does the Opta 'supercomputer' suggest?
Predicted Women's Super League final table - Opta as of 21 April | ||
---|---|---|
Team | % chance of winning title | Current position & points |
1. Chelsea | 50.2 | 2nd - 46 points |
2. Manchester City | 49.8 | 1st - 49 points |
Opta's 'supercomputer' prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta team rankings - based on historical and recent team performances.
These are simulated thousands of times to create the probabilities.
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For me, Chelsea are the strongest team in the WSL
My money would be - on Chelsea tho.