Households are facing the prospect of even higher food prices owing to the war in Ukraine, threatening hikes of the kind seen in 2008 after the global financial crisis, as wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia come under threat, compounding price increases resulting from the climate crisis.
Prices of wheat, maize and soya beans have surpassed 2008 levels in recent days, with maize hovering slightly below prices of 2013 and soya beans reaching similar heights as in 2012.
Arif Husain, the chief economist at the UN World Food Programme (WFP), said: “The devastating consequences of the Russian onslaught on Ukraine are also felt in places far away. Grain and oil prices are fast approaching or even surpassing levels not seen since the 2008 food and fuel crisis.”
Food prices were surging around the world before the invasion, in part because of the effects of the climate crisis and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), a UN agency, has said Ukrainian farmers could miss the crucial May planting season for their crops. Supplies from Russia could also come under threat if the Kremlin curtails wheat exports in response to western sanctions.
Ukraine is the fifth largest wheat exporter, accounting for about 10% of the global market, according to the FAO. It is also one of the biggest exporters of maize, accounting for about 15% of global exports.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, with about 17% share of the global export market, and is the second biggest supplier of sunflower seed.
The Black Sea region exports at least 12% of global food calories, including sunflower oil, maize and other crops along with wheat. A large proportion of these exports – about 40% in the case of wheat – go to the Middle East and Africa, where food price rises are already biting.
Gilbert Houngbo, the president of the International Fund for Agricultural Development, said: “We are very concerned that an extended conflict in Ukraine could limit the world’s supply of staple crops like wheat, corn and sunflower oil, resulting in the skyrocketing of food prices and hunger. This could jeopardise global food security and heighten geopolitical tensions.
“The continuation of this conflict, already a tragedy for those directly involved, will be catastrophic for the entire world, and particularly those that are already struggling to feed their families.”
One in 10 people in the world already lack enough food to eat, and coronavirus has exacerbated the problem as pandemic has disrupted markets and food transportation networks in developing countries, as well as worsening poverty.
What makes this crisis even worse is that the effects of climate breakdown have already created global disruption in key food markets. Prices for durum wheat, used to make pasta, soared by 90% late last year after widespread drought and record heatwaves in Canada, one of the world’s biggest grain producers.
Key growing areas in the US experienced wildfires and extreme weather last year, while there was drought in areas of Latin America. Australia is suffering from devastating floods, the impacts of which have yet to be fully felt on its agricultural exports. This it on top of problems with poor weather last year.
In the UK, food prices have been affected by Brexit, which has increased costs because of the extra bureaucracy involved in shipping.
In some of the world’s most vulnerable regions, people were already facing acute food shortages owing to weather conditions of the type that have been found to be worsening as a result of the climate crisis.
Drought is already afflicting the Horn of Africa, threatening famine there. Three consecutive failed rainy seasons have decimated crops and caused abnormally high livestock deaths. Shortages of water and pasture are forcing families from their homes and leading to increased conflict between communities. Forecasts suggest the below-average rainfall will worsen, compounding already dire conditions in the coming months.
Michael Dunford, the WFP’s regional director for eastern Africa, said: “Harvests are ruined, livestock are dying, and hunger is growing as recurrent droughts affect the Horn of Africa. The situation requires immediate humanitarian action and consistent support to build the resilience of communities for the future.”